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832
FXUS61 KBGM 020731
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
331 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today across
a majority of the region. The first half of the week will warmer and
mostly quiet but isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
be possible. Shower chances increase midweek as the next system
approaches the region.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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330 AM Update...

The quiet conditions will come to an end today as high pressure
moves east out of the region and a shortwave trough moves in from
the west. Drier conditions will hold on through the morning and
early afternoon hours, especially as precipitation struggles to
overcome the dry air initially. Eventually, scattered showers will
develop by mid-afternoon across CNY and portions of the Northern
Tier of PA. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. MLCAPE
values will be less than 300 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear is around 20
kts, so strong storms are not expected. NAM guidance has higher
instability but given the increasing sky cover through the morning
hours, conditions should not become too unstable. Temperatures today
will max out in the 70s with a few valley locations near 80. With
decreasing heights, increasing cloud cover, and showers moving in,
today`s forecasted temperatures were lowered below most guidance
using a blend of the NBM, NBM tenth percentile, NAM, and Conshort.
As rain moves in, temperatures will also likely begin to cool prior
to sunset.

Overnight, thunderstorm chances diminish but showers continue. The
Catskills and NEPA will have the best chance for showers, though
isolated showers will be possible up into the Southern Tier.
While model soundings do not show much for an inversion tonight,
patchy fog will be possible. Low-level moisture will remain
present, the ground will be wet, and winds will be light which
all combined should help aid in the development of patchy,
valley fog or at least low stratus. Temperatures tonight will
remain mild, only falling into the upper 50s and low 60s.

A ridge begins to build into the region on Monday, but weak waves
look to kick off some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Model
guidance are showing more instability compared to today but
shear will still be weak. There is some uncertainty where
showers will pop up but this forecast favored short-range
guidance for PoPs, which is mainly limited to NEPA and far
western portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions.
Most of CNY will stay dry and will see mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures will trend warmer to start the week as the ridge
builds in. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update

The short term forecast period is mostly quiet with ridging
overhead. However, a weak upper impulse pushes across western
NY and into central PA Monday afternoon. At this time, with the
instability that will be in place Monday afternoon, can`t rule
out an isolated shower/storm, especially across NE PA.

Ridging will settle over the region Monday night into Tuesday
and this will make for dry and warm conditions, with highs
Tuesday afternoon into the 80s across most of the area.
Overnight temperatures will remain warm, with lows only in the
mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
235 PM Update

Ridging will likely hold over the area for most of the day on
Wednesday, so decided to cut back the PoPs from NBM. The best
chances for showers will be west of the I81 corridor during the
day on Wednesday and that shower threat will spread eastward
Wednesday night into Thursday. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
in the model guidance for days 6 and 7. Due to the low
confidence, stuck close to the NBM solution through the
remainder of the period. Forecast ensembles are indicating deep
SW return flow developing and NAEFS have PWAT anomaly of about 2
standard deviations. Unsettled weather on Thursday and Friday
is expected as a broad upper trough pushes down out of Canada.
Heavy rain shower and thunderstorms will be possible, especially
with the high low level moisture content. The upper level trough/low
remains just to the north Friday. This will keep the chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week and
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will at most terminals over the next 24 hours.
Showers will move in from the west after 18z this afternoon.
With these showers, isolated thunderstorms are also possible.
For now, any mention of showers has been left out of the TAFs as
coverage remains uncertain. Guidance is also suggesting lowered
ceilings and visibilities just before 06z tonight. If there is
moisture around from the showers, then fog could develop. Again,
being nearly hours out, there is some uncertainty there, though
ELM was given MVFR restrictions to hint at the possibility.
Expect winds to remain light and variable through most of this
period, though winds may settle out of the south for part of
today.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Isolated rain showers
during the daytime hours. Patchy valley fog and restrictions
Monday night.

Wednesday...Low chance of shower/storm and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday... increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front
approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...BTL