-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
301
FXUS64 KBRO 040929
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
429 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Key Message:

*Above normal temperatures producing heat advisory and excessive
heat warning conditions

Mid-level ridging will support above normal temperatures in the
short term. Afternoon high temperatures will easily reach and exceed
the century mark for most inland locations today and Wednesday, with
coastal areas recording mid to upper 90s. A heat advisory has been
issued through 1 PM this afternoon for all areas except the barrier
islands, with an excessive heat warning taking over for Starr, Jim
Hogg, Brooks, Kenedy, and Hidalgo Counties.

Coastal counties especially will see breezy and gusty southeast
winds. Mostly sunny skies will prevail. Low temperatures tonight
will also be a few degrees above normal and will generally range
from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. A sliver of Zapata County is in
a general thunderstorm outlook area for tonight. There is a weak
signal for Sierra Madre Oriental convection to the west this
evening, and a few cells could drift toward the CWA. Confidence is
on the low side for now. Rip current risk has been pegged at
high for today and tonight.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Broad 500 mb high pressure, varying between northwest Mexico and
the Four Corners area of the United States, will continue to be an
oppressive weather influence over the BRO CWFA. This synoptic set-
up will produce dry weather across Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley through the long term forecast period. The most
recent drought map for the Lone Star State indicates Abnormally
Dry to Moderate Drought conditions across much of Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley, and no improvement is likely when the
newest map is released on Thursday.

Meanwhile, well above normal daytime high temperatures are also
anticipated. The combination of ambient air temperatures and
relative humidity percentages will support a HEAT ADVISORY for
portions or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
Thursday and Monday, with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for the
remainder of the long term period daylight hours.

Finally, the interaction between thermal low pressure over Mexico
and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will create a generally
breezy onshore flow through the period, and a WIND ADVISORY is not
expected to be needed.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

MVFR to VFR will continue to dominate at the aerodromes through
the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
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(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Strong high pressure over the Gulf will support moderate to fresh
southeast winds and moderate to slightly elevated seas. Small
craft should exercise caution today. Low end small craft advisory
conditions will be possible on the Gulf waters tonight and
Wednesday.

(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Surface high pressure will steadily build into the western Gulf of
Mexico through the period, weakening the pressure gradient. Although
generally moderate winds and seas are anticipated along the Lower
Texas Coast, wind speeds and/or sea heights may occasionally require
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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BROWNSVILLE             96  82  98  81 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               99  80 100  79 /  10   0  10  10
MCALLEN                102  82 103  81 /  10   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY        104  81 107  79 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  83  89  82 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     95  82  95  81 /  10   0   0   0
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&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248-254-255-351-
     354-355.

     Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ249>253-353.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ249>253-353.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller-54
LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...Tomaselli-66