-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
507
FXUS64 KBRO 051940
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
240 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Key Messages:

*Above normal high and low temperatures
*Very low rain chances

Updated the temperatures and heat indices for this afternoon and
evening to reflect what was being observed at several sites and have
issued an Excessive Heat Warning for Inland parts of Cameron,
Willacy, and Kenedy Counties along with Brooks and Hidalgo Counties
as well.  Observed heat indices are in the range of 117 to 120 for
these areas.

As for the rest of the short term forecast period, the mid-level
ridge continues to further dominate the weather for Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley, which will see further temperatures being
above the normal for both highs and lows and there will be a
continue lack of rain in the forecast. Meanwhile on the surface, the
southeasterly winds will continue to help bring in more warm and
humid air to the region that will continue to bring up the heat risk
for the area.

The actual high temperatures for the short term forecast period are
expected to be in the range of upper 90s along the coast and triple
digits for the rest of region. However, the humidity form the
southeasterly flow will make the heat indices in the range of 110 to
116. So while a Heat Advisory is likely for tomorrow for Brooks,
Hidalgo, Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy Counties. Starr County seems
rather questionable at this point, but could also be in need of a
Heat Advisory for tomorrow as well. If not, then a Special Weather
Statement for Starr and Zapata counties will be enough to cover the
heat for tomorrow. As for the low temperatures for tonight and
tomorrow, the low are expected to be in the range of upper 70s to
lower 80s. However, the low temperatures for tomorrow night
currently seem to be just a tad cooler overall than for tonight.

Lastly, for anyone going to the beach, currently there is a High
Risk of Rip Current through the rest of the afternoon. However,
after that, the risk drops down to a moderate risk of rip currents
through tomorrow.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

By Friday, a deepening trough over the northeastern U.S. will pull
an upper level ridge east-southeastward throughout the weekend.
Behind the ridge, a 500 mb high pressure will translate
southeastward from over the southern Great Plains into the northern
and eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico. This will produce breezy
southeasterly winds and dry conditions through much of the weekend
for Deep South Texas though convection over the Sierra Madre is
possible.

To begin this upcoming week, the subtropical ridge to our south will
begin to strengthen and broaden as well as reposition well to our
southwest as another ridge enters the Pacific Northwest, which will
initiate a surge of high pressure from the Rocky Mountains
southeastward into the Central Plains Monday into Tuesday. A cold
front on the leading edge will work its way north to south through
Texas and likely stall out before reaching Deep South Texas.
Convergence associated with this boundary will shift wind to more of
an easterly component through the middle of the week as well as keep
a 15 to 25% chance of showers and thunderstorms for Monday and
Tuesday.

Temperatures will be hot over the weekend, but likely just beneath
Heat Advisory criteria on Friday and Saturday with maximum heat
indices nearing 110 F. Sunday and Monday look to be the two hottest
days with potential Heat Advisories possible as enhanced
southeasterly winds advect higher humidity across the region.
Combined with temperatures nearing 100 F across much of inland areas
west of I-69C and higher humidity, heat indices will likely exceed
111 F with the exception of the barrier islands. Some relief in the
heat is possible Tuesday with increased cloudiness from the front,
but the heat may build once again into Wednesday. Overnight lows
will range from the mid 70s F to lower 80s F.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR ceilings are expected to persist through the afternoon along
with gusty southeasterly winds. By this evening, the southeasterly
winds should weaken, while low-level clouds will move into the
region. Model guidance does indicate that there is a strong
possibility of IFR ceilings during the overnight hours, but VFR
conditions should return during the late morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Tonight through Thursday Night...Hazardous conditions for the Laguna
Madre and Gulf waters are expected to continue into the early
evening hours as a Small Craft Advisory continues to 7 PM.
Afterwards, the winds and seas will start to improve, and become
light to moderate with moderate seas that will be more favorable
through Thursday night.

Friday though Monday... Gentle to moderate winds on Friday will
transition to moderate to fresh on Saturday and Sunday before easing
on Monday as a high pressure passes over the northwestern and
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are expected though showers
and thunderstorms on Sunday into Monday may produce higher gusts and
seas in, and near, thunderstorms.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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BROWNSVILLE             81  98  79  96 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               79 101  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 81 102  79 101 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         79 101  77 101 /  10  20  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  89  81  88 /   0  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  94  79  93 /   0  10   0  10
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&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248-249-252-351-
     354-355.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250-
     251-253>255-353.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...64-Katz