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328
FXUS61 KBUF 232045
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
445 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure building into the region will provide us with fair dry
weather tonight and Friday. On and off periods of showers and
thunderstorms are then expected through the long holiday weekend
with the most unsettled conditions expected Saturday and Monday...
though Sunday should feature mainly dry and pleasant weather.
Additional showers will then linger into Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair weather tonight as high pressure continues over the area and a
ridge approaches from the west. Clear skies with overnight low
temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. Overnight winds will be
limited to around 5 mph out of the southwest.

Fair weather continues Friday as the ridging increases and the ridge
axis starts to move into western portions of the area later in the
day. Temperatures will warm some over the western counties as warm
air advection bumps temperatures up into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Farther east, where warm air advection doesn`t start until later,
afternoon highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s from the higher
terrain to lower elevations respectively.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridge axis will slide across the eastern Great Lakes
Friday night, continuing to support dry weather overnight. However
the dry weather will come to an end as the next mid-level shortwave
trough will slide across the central Great lakes late Friday night
into Saturday supporting surface low pressure to slide east across
the Upper Great Lakes and across southern Canada. While the surface
low slides east to the north of New York State Saturday and Saturday
night, a pair of fronts will slide across the area. Initially a warm
front will slide from west to east mid-day Saturday and Saturday
afternoon. Similar to Wednesday of this week, the later arrival time
will support enough instability and moisture to advect into the area
and support a few embedded thunderstorms within the showers
associated with the front.

Showers will then linger throughout the night as the cold front
passes across the region Saturday night. In the wake of the front,
shower will diminish and support a drying trend heading into Sunday.

Sunday will be the driest day of the Memorial Day weekend holiday,
as an area of high pressure will extend south across the region.
Temperatures Sunday will topple off in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night and Monday a warm front will lift across the region,
bringing a return to a more humid airmass. Lift along the front,
combined with diffluent flow aloft ahead of a mid level shortwave
will bring a period of rain to end the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

This diffluent flow and copious amounts of moisture (PWATS 1.5 to
1.75) could allow for heavier downpours of rain within
thunderstorms.

A cold front Monday night will continue showers for our region.
Moisture wrapping around the initial shortwave may linger these
showers into Tuesday.

Warm southerly breezes Monday will be replaced by cooler westerly
breeze for Tuesday.

A shortwave ridge may bring a less active day Tuesday before a
second shortwave deepening a longwave trough over our region
continues chances for showers through at least Wednesday if not
Thursday.

Temperatures at 850 hPa will lower to around zero Celsius, and
possibly below zero across Lake Ontario and points eastward
Wednesday and Thursday. This cold air flowing over the now milder
lakes may bring lake clouds or even some lake enhanced rain.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR will continue at all terminals through tonight. FEW-SCT050-070
will dissipate early this evening, leaving just some passing cirrus.
Winds out of the west to southwest at around 15 mph, with some gusts
to 25 mph through 21z will become light by 00Z.

Widespread VFR weather continues FRiday with winds generally from
the W-NW at 10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Monday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Restrictions likely with showers.

&&

.MARINE...
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High pressure will build into the region through Friday with light
to moderate winds prevailing...along with waves at or below 3 feet.
Generally remain light to modest winds and minimal waves will then
continue through most of the weekend as a weakening trough crosses
the area on Saturday...and high pressure moves back into the region
Sunday. The above said...the passing trough could produce some
showers and thunderstorms capable of locally higher winds and waves
Saturday.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA