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115
FXUS62 KCAE 101822
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
222 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will move south of the area. The focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast
Midlands and CSRA this afternoon and evening near the front.
Drier air will spread into the region mid week as high pressure
builds in from the north. Moisture will return to the area late
in the week leading to increasing chances of mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms Friday through the
weekend. Temperatures will rise to above normal values
especially by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1830Z Update: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for
Bamberg, Barnwell, and Orangeburg counties in South Carolina and
Burke County, Georgia until 9pm this evening. Large Hail and
damaging Wind gusts are the primary hazards.

The axis of an upper trough is currently approaching the forecast
area from the northwest this afternoon. Meanwhile, a remnant
front remains draped across the forecast area with scattered
showers and thunderstorms continuing to pass through parts of
the central and southern Midlands and CSRA. This activity is
located along and south of a tight moisture gradient as drier
air slowly moves in from the north. While rain chances will
diminish from north to south through tonight, the threat for
showers and thunderstorms will continue until the drier air can
work through the entire FA. There is a concern for additional
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and
evening and SPC has upgraded portions of the southern Midlands
and CSRA to a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather with a
Slight (2/5) risk along our southern CWA border. The approaching
trough, combined with ample moisture and wind shear in excess
of 50 knots, could produce severe weather despite the current
lack of instability. The clouds and showers have resulted in a
slow climb in temperatures but any breaks in the clouds should
permit warming with forecast highs in the lower to mid 80s. Rain
chances continue to decrease tonight and the entire CWA is
expected to be dry before daybreak. Expect skies to clear out as
well though there could be areas of low clouds and/or patchy
fog towards daybreak in the southeastern Midlands due to
lingering moisture. Overnight lows should fall into the lower to
mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Long wave trough axis centered over eastern Canada and New
England will be extending south along the eastern seaboard
through the Carolina and Georgia early Tuesday morning. A mid
level short wave trough will be rotating through the base of the
trough in the morning but moisture should be quite limited with
precipitable water 1 inch or less. So, not expecting any
lingering showers. Strong subsidence expected in the afternoon
as upper heights rise in the afternoon with northwest flow.
Surface pressure ridge centered over the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic region will extend into the area. There will be a weak
surface trough near the Savannah river southeast of AGS, but
moisture quite shallow. A closed upper low over the southern
Plains will move south toward the lower Mississippi Valley near
the Gulf of Mexico...further west than earlier model runs over
the past few days. So, moisture flux through Wednesday will
remain focused across Florida with drier air to the north across
the Carolinas. So continued dry forecast through Wednesday
night. Onshore flow increases Wednesday so an increase in low-
level moisture is expected. This should result in some fair
weather clouds under the subsidence inversion. Temperatures near
or slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s. Lows mainly in the low to mid 60s...normal for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Relative high confidence forecast. The ensembles are pretty
good agreement now with developing an upper low over the Gulf of
Mexico, but generally over the western Gulf and a developing a
strong ridge over the eastern CONUS by the weekend. So, the
models have trended drier through Saturday and chance pops by
early next week as low-level moisture increases off the
Atlantic. Any showers or thunderstorms should be diurnally
driven, at most scattered and perhaps triggered by a sea breeze
front. The NBM temperature guidance is quite warm with
temperatures rising each day through Saturday. Expect
temperatures to be above normal with mid to upper 90s by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions Remain Possible at All Terminals this Afternoon....

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to pass
through the region this afternoon, most recently impacting AGS/DNL.
All terminals may see brief restrictions due to passing showers and
thunderstorms with the threat ending first at CAE/CUB and last at
OGB, which could see convection linger beyond the current TEMPO
which ends at 22Z. A few thunderstorms could become strong to
severe resulting in strong winds and turbulence, especially at
OGB. The rain threat comes to an end late this evening with at
least partial clearing expected for the overnight. The exception
to this will be at OGB which could see the development of low
stratus and/or fog towards daybreak as indicated by a second
TEMPO group.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are
currently anticipated through mid-week. The next chance for
showers and thunderstorms is on Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$