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881
FXUS62 KCAE 041824
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
224 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases across the Southeast through mid week leading
to scattered convection each afternoon. A cold front will move
across the Southeast Thursday increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Drier air follows the front late this week into the
weekend.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Partly cloudy across the region early this afternoon with some
debris clouds passing off to the east while the lower level cu field
is beginning to develop. Morning showers have diminished (hence the
debris clouds) and isolated showers and storms are beginning to
develop. Temperatures have warmed into the mid and upper 80s with
dewpoints in the upper 60s. This has given us 1500-2000 J/kg of
SBCAPE already, according to the latest SPC mesoanalysis. Additional
warming is expected for another couple of hours this afternoon with
highs peaking in the upper 80s or around 90 closer to the coastal
plain.

Convection this afternoon and evening will be forced by an
approaching shortwave as well as the typical summertime sea breeze
front. The Bermuda high sitting offshore continues to send a
continuous stream of low level moisture into the region on southeast
surface flow. With winds aloft more south to southwest, additional
moisture continues to advect into our area, as PWATs exceed 1.5"
currently and should near 1.8"+ by later this evening.

Expect a day similar to yesterday with scattered convection
developing this afternoon during peak heating. Overall wind shear
remains quite weak, so unorganized convection is expected with
minimal severe threat. CAMs are in decent agreement with initiation
around 18-19z, but confidence is lower regarding exact location of
these cells. However, when the main shortwave moves through later
this evening, there is much better model consensus of a decaying
line of showers and storms (currently along the Alabama/Georgia
border) pushing into the western Midlands/CSRA at or around 00-02z.
The loss of daytime heating should stabilize things east of
Columbia, and most of the models have this precip diminishing west
of the I-20 corridor late tonight.

Of note, the slower storm motion and high PWATs could provide
intense rainfall rates and a possible localized flooding threat in
vulnerable locations or if any storms train over the same area. CAMs
have really focused best convection along and north of the I-20
corridor, so PoPs reflect this with higher values across the upper
CSRA and western Midlands with a gradient to lower chances eastern
Midlands. Convective debris clouds will likely delay radiational
cooling tonight but temperatures eventually should fall into the
upper 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A few isolated showers or thunderstorms may still linger
Wednesday morning, but the activity is expected to increase as
we head into the afternoon as another shortwave disturbance
moves across the region. Expect coverage to be similar or even
higher than today as PWATs are expected to be around 1.75"
Wednesday afternoon. Activity is anticipated to wane overnight
ahead of another round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.
A cold front moving toward the region will aid in keeping the
PWATs elevated ahead of it, allowing scattered showers and
storms again in the afternoon and evening. The severe threat
for both days is minimal; however, a few of the stronger cells
could produce wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph, especially on
Thursday. The cold front is anticipated to move through the
region late Thursday night/early Friday morning.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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After the front passes, drier air is expected to move in behind
it. That said there could be an isolated shower or storm over
the eastern portions of the forecast area on Friday, depending
on exactly where the front is located. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected for the weekend ahead of more activity
possible early for the week ahead.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions generally expected over the 24 hr forecast
period.

FEW-SCT clouds AOA 3kft MSL with cirrus above and developing
SHRA/TSRA. Convection will generally be SCT in nature, but a better
area of precip may impact AGS/DNL around 05/00Z. SFC winds southwest
around 5 to 8 kts, with a few erratic gusts possible in/near
SHRA/TSRA. Convective debris clouds through the evening may give way
to some CIG restrictions late tonight due to abundant low level
moisture.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through Friday with intermittent
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$