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039
FXUS62 KCAE 221518
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1118 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the region through early Thursday
keeping fair and dry conditions in place along with warming
temperatures. A frontal boundary will approach the region
Thursday night and Friday and is expected to stall just north
of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms
Friday and Saturday. Another stronger system is expected Sunday
into early next week and continue the chances of thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Surface high pressure remains centered just off the NC coast and
ridging into the forecast area today while aloft the upper ridge
axis persists overhead. Satellite imagery showing some higher
clouds moving across the region while surface heating is
resulting in fair weather cumulus development. Temperatures have
been rising quickly into the lower 80s this morning and should
be a bit warmer than yesterday under the influence of the upper
ridge with highs expected in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Atmosphere remains stable with a strong subsidence inversion
despite increasing atmospheric moisture with PWATs rising to
around 1 inch by this evening.

Afternoon cumulus should dissipate quickly with sunset but some
higher clouds will increase overnight. A low level jet around 25
knots is forecast and combined with some higher clouds this
should limit radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows to be a
bit warmer than this morning, in the mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Synoptic situation will be changing Thursday as the frontal
boundary approaches from the northwest while the upper level
ridging is suppressed by short waves moving through the pattern.
with the surface high still offshore low level flow will be
southerly through the day pushing pwat values over 1.6 inches.
Although the front will be moving toward the area is will stall
to the north and never make it to the forecast area. Have kept
slight chance to low chance pops over the northern Midlands and
Pee Dee Thursday where the best instability will reside closer
to the boundary while in the central Midlands through the CSRA
some subsidence will persist working to suppress convection.
With a short wave also crossing just north of the forecast area
Thursday afternoon along with moderate to strong instability
there is potential for some strong thunderstorms. ATTM the area
remains under a general thunder outlook from SPC with just the
northern portions of Lancaster and Chesterfield Counties in a
marginal outlook. Will continue to monitor as much will depend
on the exact location of the front and passing short wave.
Thursday night through Friday night the remains of the front
will be stalled north of the forecast area with a series of
short waves expected to progress through the region. This will
keep the best instability and potential for thunderstorms mainly
along and north of I-20. With instability expected to remain
moderate to strong there is potential for some strong
thunderstorms again much will depend on the timing of the short
waves progressing through the region. High temperatures will be
in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Synoptic pattern will remain active through the long term with a
couple areas of concern. First concern is another frontal
boundary which will be weak but crossing the area Saturday
during the late morning and afternoon hours. This will be
accompanied by a short wave which will be moving through the mid
Atlantic States thus upper level support will be a bit weaker.
Have remained with chance pops over the central Midlands
northward with slight chance elsewhere. Next concern will be
Sunday and Monday as low pressure develops over OK/NE and ejects
northeastward toward the central Great Lakes. This will be
pushing another cold front toward the forecast area with the
main issues being an upper level trough digging into the eastern
US. The front is expected to cross the region Monday with the
upper level trough axis moving through late Tuesday. Models have
differing solutions with this scenario however with potential
for a strong trigger mechanism and upper level support this time
period will need to be monitored. Temperatures through the long
term will be near to above normal with highs generally in the
low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected for most of the TAF period with some
visibility restrictions early morning at fog-prone locations.

Clear skies at all the terminals early this morning with some
high cloudiness streaming in from the west. VFR conditions
expected for much of the period with SW winds around 5-7 knots
and some fair weather cumulus clouds. Increasing high clouds
overnight ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant flight restrictions
are currently anticipated through Thursday outside of brief
morning fog. Low probability of restrictions during the late
week period into the weekend from afternoon and evening
convection.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$