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154
FXUS61 KCAR 220800
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
400 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak mid and upper level features cross the area today
as surface high pressure remains along the eastern seaboard. A
strong cold front will crosses the area Thursday, followed by
high pressure Friday into the weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Warm and somewhat humid conditions can be expected today with
afternoon highs away from the coast forecast to climb into the
low 80s. With dew points expected to rise into the lower 60 it
will feel a bit on the muggy side. The main forecast challenge
today will be with regard to the development of any scattered
showers or isolated thunderstorms. Yesterdays weak dew point
boundary will continue to linger across central areas and would
likely be the focus for activity this afternoon. Any
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be isolated at best,
as warming temperatures aloft should inhibit much in the way of
convective development this afternoon.

Low pressure track well to our northwest across central Canada
tonight with a trailing cold front approaching from the west,
and a weak warm front lifts northeast across the area. There is
some instabilty aloft indicated, so have included mention of
isolated thunderstorms overnight along with scattered showers.
Patchy fog will also be possible. Lows tonight will be near 60
for most areas.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Cold front likely to be bisecting CWA Thursday morning with showers
ongoing over nrn zones after daybreak. Given extensive cloud
cover in the morning tstms likely won`t develop until around
17z. MUCAPES on the order of 1000-2000 JKG-1 along with 30-40kts
of shear and inverted-v soundings may lead to locally damaging
winds with any storm that develops along of and ahead of the
front. Temps on Thursday will climb into the m/u 70s across the
north, around 80 over interior Downeast and remaining cool along
the shore owing to fairly cold ocean temps and onshore flow
ahead of the front. Stable marine layer will keep storms inland
from the coast in the afternoon.

Skies will clear in wake of fropa Thursday night with temps
dropping back into the 50s Friday morning. Winds will remain out
of the west overnight ahead of secondary front dropping out of
Canada.

Upr trof along with secondary front will be located just to the
northwest of the St. Lawrence by 12z Friday. With cold pool and
front expect skies to cloud up throughout the morning. A line
of showers will develop in the afternoon and with low frzg
levels cannot rule out afternoon storms acrs the north capable
of producing hail.

As reinforcing shot of cold air occurs with fropa temps will be able
to drop into the lower 40s over portions of the North Woods under
clearing skies. H8 temps drop twd 0C by 09z Saturday but with winds
remaining elevated expect that mins will remain above the
middle- 30s and prevent much in the way of patchy frost
developing.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Brief upr ridge builds into area on Saturday with mostly sunny
skies expected. Cannot rule out an isolated shower Saturday
night with s/wv zipping through in zonal flow before med range
guidance begins to disagree on upr air pattern.

By 12z Sunday forecast starts to go off the rails with GFS/CMC
bringing upr low into Ontario with warm front approaching from
the west and increasing shower chances during the day. Latest EC
has fairly weak flow over the region late in the weekend.

After this point large-scale synoptic storm will be moving into
the Great Lakes with pw values ahead of it increasing to near
1.50 inches. At this time it appears that rain will begin to
increase on Memorial Day with off and on rain thru the end of
the period.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through 0Z Thursday. Cant
totally rule out some fog patches at the terminals through about
12z this morning.

VFR conditions expected tonight, except IFR/LIFR possible
vicinity KBHB in low clouds after 06z Thursday.

Scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm are possible this
afternoon and again tonight. Low confidence in this at times thus
no mention in latest TAF forecast.

Light and variable wind through tonight, becoming W to NW
behind the cold front on Thursday.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday...VFR with tempo IFR in afternoon storms. SW 5-15kts.

Thursday night...VFR. WSW 5-10kts.

Friday...VFR tempo MVFR across northern Aroostook terminals in
possible afternoon storms. SW 5-15kts.

Friday night-Saturday...Mainly VFR. WNW 5-15kts.

Saturday night-Sunday...VFR then lowering to MVFR Sunday morning
in showers. Lgt/vrb Saturday night becoming SSE 5-10kts Sunday.
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.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA levels through tonight.
Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 3 NM at times early this
morning and again tonight.


SHORT TERM: Winds likely to remain below SCA levels though may
approach 25 kts Thu evening and again Fri evening behind cold
fronts. Seas range from 2-4 feet during the period. Visibilities
will be reduced Thursday and Thursday night.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/Buster
Marine...TWD/Buster