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859
FXUS61 KCTP 020047
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
847 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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*Becoming cloudy tonight with rain showers spreading west to
 east Sunday through Sunday night
*Trending warmer and more humid Mon-Tue; rain most likely Wed-Thu
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Upper level ridging along the east coast will ensure fair
weather overnight. However, warm advection aloft ahead of an
upstream shortwave will spread thickening cirrus into Central
PA. Light wind, dry air and mostly clear skies this evening
may allow temps to dip a bit below NBM guidance over the eastern
edge of the forecast area. Otherwise, sticking close to NBM
guidance, with lows in the 50s areawide.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A surge in pwats 1-1.5" ahead of weakening shortwave trough
will spread mainly light/passing showers from west to east
across central PA Sunday into Sunday night. Model trends are
slower with the progression of the showers shifting max POPs
later Sunday afternoon/evening into Sunday night. Cloud cover
will greatly limit instability with HREF depicting almost no
CAPE tomorrow -- so thunderstorms are unlikely. Expect a cloudy
end to the first weekend of June with max temps trending cooler
than Saturday, especially over the W Mtn where thickening clouds
will arrive first.

Building upper level ridge to 580dm early next week should
favor lower POPs Mon-Tue. However, airmass will be trending
warmer and more humid, so can`t rule out spotty diurnally
driven convection.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A deepening upper-level trough stationed over the Great Lakes
will promote an unsettled pattern on Wednesday and into
Thursday. There remains some uncertainty with regards to timing
of precipitation as EC guidance outlines an extended period of
showers on Wednesday with a secondary maximum Thursday
afternoon while GEFS guidance indicates more afternoon/evening
rainfall both days. A slightly later shift in guidance favors
the latter option, but have still decided to keep likely
mentions out of the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe outside of
where a small overlap Wednesday night does warrant some likely
mentions across the western highlands.

Latest deterministic model guidance does outline slightly drier
conditions on Friday as the best forcing and moisture shifts
east of PA. Some chances remain for scattered diurnally-driven
showers, especially across the western zones with westerly winds
and a deep closed low stationed across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z Sunday with high (> 90%)
confidence. A high-level (10-15kft) SCT-to-BKN deck is expected
to traverse across the area during the overnight period with
some lighter winds and dry air limiting any fog potential
overnight into Sunday morning. After 15Z Sunday, some lower
level clouds (~5000ft AGL) will move into the western terminals
(BFD/JST) ahead of scattered rain showers with some potential
for lower visibilities. Rain showers will then overspread across
the central mountains after 18Z Sunday but not quite reach the
eastern airfields by 00Z Monday. As the showers become more
widespread lower cigs will begins to encroach in the west as
well with MVFR ceilings possible for BFD/JST. Scattered showers
will linger into the early morning hours on Monday before
tapering off and allowing for fog to develop as clearing
occurs.

Outlook...

Mon...Patchy AM fog, slight chance of PM t-storms.

Tue-Thu...SHRA and TSRA with restrictions possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings

Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May
 T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring

Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May
4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring

Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May
2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring

Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May
Warmest; 21st wettest Spring

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/NPB
AVIATION...NPB/Bowen
CLIMATE...Steinbugl