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297
FXUS61 KCTP 102248
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
648 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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* After a cool overnight, temperatures will be on the rise
  through the week as high pressure brings a stretch of dry
  weather with relatively low humidity, light winds, and plenty
  of sunshine.
* The next significant chance of rain will be this Friday, as a
  cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A few light rain showers are possible into the early overnight
hours near the Mason-Dixon line.

It will be another cool overnight, with low temperatures
dipping into the 40s across the Allegheny Plateau and the low to
mid 50s in the Susquehanna and Cumberland valleys. If we can
get the clouds to break, we could see a bit of fog formation
overnight as well.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper trough that has kept temperatures below normal will
begin to pull away from the region on Tuesday. The northwest
mtns should see a 5-10 degree bump in max temps, while more
modest warming of perhaps a couple of degrees is expected
elsewhere.

High pressure will begin to build in Tuesday night, which will
support clearing skies and calm winds. Patchy valley fog is
possible, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s
northwest to mid 50s southeast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Looking at a warm up for the second half of the week, but
dewpoints will not add anything to the heat.

Other than Friday, most of the time will be dry for a change,
after a wet Spring.

Height falls could support some strong storms later on Friday,
but that will depend on timing, lee trough formation, and
moisture convergence. Highest dewpoints fcst to the southeast
of the best dynamics. Activity likely to weaken Friday evening,
as the cold front drops to the southeast.

Next weekend looks dry, as a northerly flow of dry air from
Canada is advected into our area. This could be key to the
fcst, as if one keeps advecting dry air into the area now and
then, this will aid in the upper level ridge building back in.

There could be a shower or storm later next Monday, as a more
humid airmass works eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR across much of the airspace today, with the exception
of the NW sites where low clouds will likely hold MVFR
conditions through tonight. Gusty winds will occur as a upper
level trough swings through central PA. Winds are not expected
to gust high enough to reach LLWS criteria, but sites today
could see gusts up to 25kts. Northwest winds will gradually
diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds in across the
Great Lakes.

Cloud will continue to build in through tonight, but most sites
should maintain VFR with ceilings likely to remain near
5000ft. Some lower clouds are possible across the west and north
of PA, and BFD will likely (~80%) keep its MVFR cigs through
tomorrow morning. Light patchy ridgetop fog could also develop
in the NW, but confidence is low enough to not mention it in
the BFD TAF.

Outlook...

Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Fri...Restrictions possible if afternoon/evening CB/TSRA
develops.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Evanego
NEAR TERM...Evanego/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Evanego/Bowen
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Guseman/Bowen