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138
FXUS61 KCTP 091144
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
744 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Showers across the north this morning will gradually weaken as
 they drift southeast, giving way to a pleasant afternoon with
 breezy northwest winds and a mix of clouds and sun.
*Isolated showers along and north of I-80 may develop tonight
 and Monday as a reinforcing shot of cold air keeps highs -5 to
 -15F compared to average for this time of year.
*Temperatures will be on the rise through the end of the week as
 high pressure brings a stretch of rain-free weather with low
 humidity, light winds, and plenty of sunshine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Continuing to track a decaying batch of showers this morning
associated with a cold front that will drift southeastward
during the day today. MRMS rainfall as of 0530AM/0930Z indicates
a stripe of >0.25" accumulations right along the NY/PA border
quickly dropping to almost no accumulation along I-80 at this
time. The coverage and intensity of rainfall will decrease with
southern extent and rain and clear our eastern zones by noon
time. Additional rainfall through midday should be less than a
tenth of an inch.

Skies will be on a clearing trend from mid morning into the
afternoon Sunday, making for another pleasant early June day.
There could be some isolated to scattered showers or thundershowers
in the northern tier (north of I-80) during the late afternoon
and evening (PoPs less than 40 pct). Otherwise the afternoon
looks dry with continued breezy conditions and relative cool
temps for this time of year with highs ranging from the mid 60s
in the north to near 80 in the southern tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A reinforcing shot of cold air will be ushered in overnight
behind a secondary cold front, allowing temperatures to drop
into the upper 40s in the northern tier and below 60s in the
southeast. On Monday, the approach of a potent shortwave aloft
will support more clouds than sun and isolated showers across
the northern tier. Monday will be the coldest day of the week as
temperatures struggle to make it out of the 50s in the northern
tier. High temperatures will be -5F to -15F compared to average
for this time of year.

Another chilly night is in store for Monday night with lows
ranging from the mid 40s at higher elevations in the Laurel
Highlands and northwest mountains to mid 50s in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States
will keep temperatures below normal through Wednesday. After
that, we should see a moderating trend through the mid to late
week with 90s possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Mainly dry conditions from Tuesday through Thursday as a lack of
moisture will leave central PA in a position where showers will
struggle to develop despite the upper level low and progressive
troughing pattern. There could be some showers and t-storms by
late week, as cold fronts drop southeastward across the area by
Friday afternoon. Low level moisture appears to still be limited
at this point. However, past experience is that such a pattern
provides the potential for isolated strong storms if moisture
gets advected into the area. Given the variance in guidance
that far out moisture trends will need to be monitored as the
week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Light rain showers moving east ahead of a cool front crossing
the central PA airspace. IFR to Low MVFR ceilings in portions of
the northwest Alleghenies, including BFD/JST, and borderline
MVFR ceilings through UNV/AOO will lift later this morning as
the front blows through. This will result in breezy northwest
winds developing through this afternoon, with gusts of around 25
mph at times.

Additionally, there is a good chance (~90%) that ceilings over
the western highlands (BFD, JST) will degrade to at least MVFR
by daybreak Monday, with a ~50-60% chance of IFR ceilings. Farther
to the east, the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT) could see a
period of MVFR cigs, while the Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS)
should remain predominantly VFR through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Mon...Spotty showers and MVFR cigs poss, mainly north.

Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Banghoff
LONG TERM...Lambert/Bowen
AVIATION...Guseman/Evanego