-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
146
FXUS61 KCTP 082329
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
729 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent Northwest flow aloft with a few embedded upper level
troughs will keep it cooler and generally breezy with
comfortable humidity over the weekend. After a couple chances
for showers on Sunday (one during the monring and the second
occurring mainly over the northern Mountains), expect a
reinforcing shot of cool air Monday preceding a warming trend
toward the middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered to broken cu have developed across much of central PA
this morning within a moist but deepening PBL. As the vertical
mixing increases to around 5 KFT AGL this afternoon, drier air
aloft will mix into the PBL, resulting in a decrease in the low
level cu later in the day. By that same time, upper level
cirrus will be working in from the west. The deeper mixing will
also help to transport WNW wind gusts of 20-25 mph to the
surface through the late afternoon hours. High temps will range
form near 70 in the north to the low 80s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Model consensus continues to indicate a steady increase in a
dual layer of clouds tonight and the next period of showers
late tonight into early Sunday morning as another shortwave
trough and cold front moves through the region.

The showers will be most numerous across the NW part of the
state, where they are progged to begin around midnight. Rain
showers will then move eastward through central PA between
midnight and 8 AM Sunday, gradually diminishing in coverage
across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley. Most locations will see
less than 0.10 inch of rain, with the majority of the measurable
precip falling prior to 8 AM. A few showers will linger into the
mid-morning hours across the Lower Susq.

Skies will be on a clearing trend from mid morning into the
afternoon Sunday, making for another pleasant early June day.
There could be some isolated to scattered showers or
thundershowers in the northern tier during the afternoon and
evening (PoPs less than 40 pct), otherwise the afternoon looks
dry with continued breezy conditions and relative cool temps for
this time of year with highs ranging from the mid 60s in the
north to near 80 in the southern tier.

Monday should be the coolest day of the upcoming 7 days. The
approach of a potent shortwave and surface cold front dropping
SE from the Glakes will bring more clouds than sun, along with
some afternoon and evening showers across primarily the Central
and NW 2/3 of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States
will keep temperatures below normal through Wednesday. After
that, we should see a moderating trend through the mid to late
week with 90s possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Mainly dry conditions from Tuesday through Thursday as a lack of
moisture will leave central PA in a position where showers will
struggle to develop despite the upper level low and progressive
troughing pattern. There could be some showers and t-storms by
late week, as cold fronts drop southeastward across the area by
Friday afternoon. Low level moisture appears to still be limited
at this point. However, past experience is that such a pattern
provides the potential for isolated strong storms if moisture
gets advected into the area. Given the variance in guidance
that far out moisture trends will need to be monitored as the
week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The northwesterly breeze of earlier is diminishing as sunset
approaches, as are the fair weather cu.

Increasing high and mid-level clouds will gradually overspread
the area this evening, ahead of an approaching cold front. Cigs
will continue to lower overnight and scattered rain showers
will push in from the northwest, arriving at BFD shortly after
midnight. This shower activity will spread southeastward
overnight, although it should experience a diminishing trend as
the night goes on.

Expect a period of LLWS over the western highlands and central
mtns overnight as a 35-40kt southwesterly jet passes overhead,
and this is noted in the TAFs.

Additionally, there is a good chc (~70%) that cigs over the
western highlands (BFD, JST) will eventually flirt with IFR
conds by daybreak or shortly thereafter. Farther to the east,
the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT) could see a period of MVFR
cigs around daybreak, while the Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS)
should remain predominantly VFR through the TAF period.

Clouds should gradually dissipate on Sunday, as the cold front
slips to our southeast and drier air works back into central PA.
We should see VFR conds areawide by Sunday aftn.

Outlook...

Mon...Spotty showers and MVFR cigs poss, mainly north.

Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Colbert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Bowen
AVIATION...Evanego