-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
955
FXUS65 KCYS 240411
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1011 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong wind gusts 50-60mph possible in the wind prone and gap
  areas of southeast WY today mid-morning through early
  afternoon. See the latest High Wind Warning Statement for
  further details.

- Precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday before winds return
  Sunday. A much warmer, milder week ahead as an upper-level
  ridge overtakes the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Current observational analysis continues to show a cold front
moving through eastern Wyoming this afternoon. Light
precipitation has developed across much of Carbon and Albany
counties where Rawlins and Dixon have reported periods of light
snow. Temperatures are expected to be some 20 degrees cooler
across the counties compared to temperatures east of the Laramie
Range the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon. This front will
continue to slide east and in its wake some elevated winds are
progged to develop across much of the region. The arrival of
some 50 knot winds aloft will mix down allowing for some wind
gusts in the 40 mph range to occur across the wind prone areas.
Signals suggest a Bora type wind event developing this evening
across the Nebraska Panhandle thanks to a rapidly deepening low
pressure system coming out of Colorado. Winds are expected to
stay elevated across the Nebraska Panhandle through much of the
evening and potentially into the early morning hours tomorrow
before diminishing. This are will be monitored for the potential
for quick fused High Wind Warning. Current wind highlights look
on track with zones in the current High Wind Warnings have
periodically gusted up to 58 mph, primarily across the Arlington
wind prone zone. Expecting this High Wind warning to expire on
time this evening.

The pattern will shift to a more unsettled pattern as the flow
aloft becomes an active NW flow with a few shortwave
disturbances moving through late Friday and again on Saturday.
Models still showing the shortwave on Saturday being the
strongest with the better upper level dynamics. Question will be
what is going on at the surface regarding moisture advection
into the region ahead of this system. Still thinking we will see
some isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
during peak heating hours, but how strong or severe these storms
become will depend on how much instability we can generate
prior to the shortwaves arrival.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

An active weekend and start of the work week is expected until upper-
level ridging begins to move overhead. This weekend, two shortwave
troughs will push across the region. On Saturday an upper-level
shortwave will move west to east across the CWA in the afternoon
hours. Sufficient daytime heating will occur with 700mb temperatures
increasing to the 5-6C range. Surface temperatures will warm into
the mid-60s to mid-70s east of the Laramie Range and low-60s west of
the Laramie Range. As the trough pushes through, enhanced lift will
be present across the region. With weak CAPE across the Panhandle,
some thunderstorms may be possible Saturday afternoon into the
evening hours, with showers present across much of the rest of the
CWA. Similarly, on Sunday another upper-level shortwave will push
across the region, increasing precipitation chances once again.
Little to no CAPE is currently progged to develop across the region,
so thunderstorms may be difficult to sustain. As the trough passes
aloft, 700mb height gradients are expected to tighten across the
region, leading to Craig to Casper gradients in the upper-50s to low-
60s on Sunday. Strong winds will be favored at the wind prone
regions of Arlington and Bordeaux once again on Sunday. Temperatures
will be in the upper-50s to low-70s.

Monday will be a transition day before calmer, warmer weather
returns for southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Monday, the
second upper-level shortwave will push out of the region leading to
briefly zonal flow followed by northwesterly flow as the ridge
builds over the western CONUS. This northwesterly flow will be
rather dry, leading to limited chances for precipitation on Monday.
However, temperatures will begin to warm into the upper-60s to mid-
70s. Tuesday through Thursday will feature an upper-level ridge
positioned directly over the region. Wednesday is expected to be the
warmest day with highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s across the region.
Many locations east of the Laramie Range will have the potential to
reach 80F as 700mb temperatures warm to 10C. Mostly calm winds will
present under this ridge with minimal clouds and precipitation
chances. It will be a very nice mid-week, but things begin to chance
late in the week as the upper-level ridge transitions into a trough
for late Thursday and Friday. There is some disagreement between
long range models at this time, with the ECMWF being a bit slower
with getting the trough into the region and the GFS being much
quicker. This will be something to monitor, but enjoy the nice, warm
week ahead!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1006 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

West northwest flow aloft will continue with winds decreasing
during the daytime on Friday as pressure gradients weaken.

Wyoming TAFS...Clear skies will prevail through Friday
afternoon, then ceilings will be around 15000 feet. Winds will
gust to 35 knots until 00Z.

Nebraska TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds around 10000 feet
will continue until mid morning Friday, then skies will become
clear. Winds will gust to 40 knots until 00Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WY...None.
NE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...RUBIN