-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
402
FXUS64 KEPZ 020535
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1135 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Hot and dry conditions expected through much of the week. The
hottest days of the year are coming Wednesday through Friday with
a high temperature above 105 degrees around El Paso. Isolated
thunderstorms could return as we go into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Models coming into pretty good agreement for much of the period.
We start out with the dryline over eastern CWA and expect it to
push back to about the area it made it to this morning around the
Rio Grande. This push should not be as long lived as increasing
WSW flow aloft pushes it east of area by 18Z. Temperatures Sunday
will be close to or maybe a couple degrees cooler than today.
Westerly winds will be on the increase during the day with
10-20mph speeds expected by mid afternoon. Little change for
Monday with westerly flow continuing, temperatures again fluctuate
very little, but could see a bounce back of a degree or two.

For Tuesday through Friday, GFS has come around much closer to
what the EC has been showing for days as well as ensemble mean.
This solution has a cutoff low developing near Northern Baja and a
strong ridge building right over the Borderland. Prior runs of the
GFS kept lifting this upper low through the Four Corners around
Thu with fairly widespread precip chances. New GFS/Ensemble mean
and EC keep low along the coast through Friday with little chance
for precip Thu. Weakness developing in the ridge later in the week
may allow some moisture to push in from the east and bring a
slight chance for storms Friday afternoon and evening. Low level
moisture will not be impressive, so the biggest threat from these
storms would likely be gusty outflow winds.

The main concern for the forecast period will be Wed-Fri with the
ridge in place and temperatures warming quickly. Strong agreement
among models that Thursday will be the hottest day. NBM temps have
increased some over the last couple of days and now look more
reasonable with a high around 107 for KELP Thu, 90th percentile
Thu has 109. All lowland locations look to be 100+ Thursday.
Wednesday and Friday will also be very hot but just 2-3 degrees
cooler than Thu. Will need to look at possible Heat Advisories for
this period, especially around El Paso Metro area.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites with mainly SKC. CIG could become FEW-SCT250 at KELP after 01Z
Monday. The winds will be light AOB 10 kts through 16Z, but will
become breezy 11 to 17 kts with gusts up to 26 kts and out from the
southwest between 16 and 02Z Monday. The winds will subside
thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the
runways.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Hot and dry conditions will be the norm through most of the
period. A few mountain storms are possible going into Thursday.
High temperatures will be near 100 for the lowlands to start the
period, but by Thursday some areas could see highs above 105
degrees. Minimum RH`s in the single digits each day through
Tuesday, then going into Wed and Thu the Sacs will work into the
lower to mid teens. Winds will start out low end breezy Sunday and
Monday, but as upper ridge builds, winds will decrease for
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
El Paso                  69  98  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            60  93  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               61  96  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  95  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               48  71  42  72 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    62  95  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              56  84  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   57  95  54  96 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                57  92  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  95  65  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                58  97  57  97 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  99  61  99 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               61  89  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  98  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             59  94  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  95  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            57  94  51  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    57  95  55  97 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 64  95  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                60  93  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  52  84  49  86 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                51  82  47  83 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 49  80  46  81 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  53  86  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                59  91  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                54  93  53  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             52  85  37  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   53  88  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    54  92  46  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               57  87  42  88 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  88  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   56  93  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  58  93  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           57  92  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               57  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice