-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
961
FXUS62 KFFC 152322
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
722 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Current radar loop shows some light showers mainly across central
GA this afternoon. These showers are moving from east to west
around the wedge of high pressure that is still dominating the
overall flow across the state. There is very little instability
over the area so not expecting any thunderstorms to develop with
these showers today. This wedge is keeping things cloudy and damp
as the cooler air flows down the eastern seaboard from the mid
atlantic states. There is also a low pressure center developing
off the Carolina coast which is forecasted to make landfall near
the SC/NC coast around sunrise Mon. This low center will move
slowly inland through Monday evening with a drier airmass
wrapping around the backside. This drier airmass will push south
out of OH/IN and move down into N GA beginning Monday morning.
This drier air will help to scatter out the cloud cover and we
should start to see some sunshine across north and central GA
Monday afternoon. While this system is expected to help dry out
most of our forecast area...a few of our eastern and northeastern
counties may see a shower or two Monday afternoon/evening due to
the closer proximity to the low center.

Low temps tonight and Monday night expected to get down into the
50s and 60s. Highs Monday will; be mainly in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Key Messages:

 - A gradual warming trends is expected through Thursday, with high
temperatures in northern Georgia reaching 3 to 8 degree above
seasonal averages by Wednesday.

 - With no significant weather systems in the pipeline, dry weather
is favored into next weekend.

Tuesday through Next Weekend:

A developing storm system off the Carolina coast will move inland
and weaken over the next 48 hours. The remnant upper level trough
associated with this system should get trapped under ridging in
eastern Canada, forcing it to meander around the Mid-Atlantic and
Ohio Valley between Tuesday and Friday. The positioning of the
trough suggests a period of drier weather, especially in northern
Georgia where drier air aloft and lower surface dewpoints (50s or
lower 60s) may line up. Slightly higher surface dewpoints across
central Georgia may help induce sufficient afternoon instability for
a few showers to develop (especially Tuesday or Wednesday). However
the probabilities of rain at any given location remain low
(generally 20% or less) each day and widespread rainfall is
unlikely. As this period of drier weather sets in, temperatures will
gradually climb upwards. This will be especially true in northern
Georgia where lower surface dewpoints should help high temperatures
return to 3 to 8 degrees above seasonal averages. This would
translate into highs in the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday, Thursday
and Friday. The lower dewpoints should also allow for greater
overnight cooling. High and low temperatures across central Georgia
should be closer to seasonal averages.

As we move into next weekend, the GEFS and EPS means favors upper
level ridging and surface high pressure over the Northeast U.S. If
these features materialize it would lead to favorable conditions for
cold air damming in the lee of the Appalachians an a subsequent
wedge front in Georgia. With this in mind, our forecast favors a
slight cooling trend and dry weather next weekend.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A brief period of sct/bkn VFR clouds this evening, but do think
the bkn MVFR will return around 12Z. Clouds should break by late
morning but sct cu around 040-050 likely through the afternoon.
Winds remain out of the east and should become gusty again
tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.
NListemaa
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens          66  79  61  84 /  10  10  20  20
Atlanta         67  80  62  84 /  20  10  10  20
Blairsville     59  77  55  78 /  10  10  20  20
Cartersville    65  84  60  85 /  20  10  10  10
Columbus        67  81  65  84 /  20  20  10  20
Gainesville     65  79  62  83 /  10  10  20  20
Macon           67  80  63  85 /  20  10  10  20
Rome            64  84  60  86 /  20  10  10  10
Peachtree City  64  80  60  83 /  20  10  10  20
Vidalia         69  80  65  84 /  20  20  20  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...NListemaa