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134
FXUS63 KFGF 242036
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
336 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Winds in southeastern North Dakota have picked up into the 25
  to 35 mph range with gusts up to 45 mph, issued a wind
  advisory for Barnes, Ransom, Sargent, through 7 PM.

- Some snow has been falling in our far northwestern counties.
  While clouds tonight will not clear to bring classic frost
  development, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s.

- Additional scattered showers into the holiday weekend, but
  widespread rain has already impacted area rivers.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Upper low continues to rotate over the forecast area and has
produced some convection. A few cold core upper low funnels and
one confirmed tornado have been confirmed as of this writing,
but should see instability decrease rapidly after 22Z and CAMs
all have cells diminishing before sunset. Winds will also
decrease around 00Z as the pressure gradient relaxes and the
core of pressure rises and cold air advection moves off to the
east. Wind advisory for our far southwestern counties should be
coming down by this evening.

The weakening showers will join the rain that has been soaking
the northern counties this afternoon, with some snow flakes
continuing to mix in across far northwestern portions of the
CWA. At this point think travel impacts will be minimal for
winter, but plenty of cold temperatures to work with as cold air
advection continues. Even with not much clearing until close to
morning, readings in the upper Devils Lake Basin are already in
the mid 30s. Expect the 30s to spread south and east into
tonight, just a question of how far. Continued winds and clouds
will not bring the classic frost formation on the ground, but
temps will drop down into the 33 to 36 range across portions of
northeastern ND into northwestern MN. Put out a frost advisory
for late tonight into tomorrow morning.

West then northwesterly sets up as the upper low exits off into
Canada, but some weak shortwaves could bring some periodic
shower and thunderstorm chances, particularly with decent
ensemble agreement on a stronger shortwave Sunday night into
Monday. Ridge building in for Wednesday/Thursday, then southwest
flow and a more active pattern returns for Friday.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Rain and showers continue to lift northeastward across the
forecast area. Ceilings are VFR at the Red River TAF sites, but
some MVFR ceilings and vis continue to hang out at KDVL and the
MN airports. Some low level wind shear at KBJI also with strong
low level jet. Showers and MVFR ceilings will impact most of the
TAF sites through the afternoon and evening, and some IFR is
possible towards morning. Winds will be shifting around to the
southwest, then west and northwest at some sites as low
pressure shifts off to the east. Gusts up around 30 kts will be
possible. Some decrease in winds and improvement in conditions
possible at the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ND...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-054.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-049-052.
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ001-004-
     005-007-008-013>015.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR