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319
FXUS63 KFGF 190904
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
404 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- No impactful expected over the next seven days.
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.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Synopsis...

An occluded upper low pushes off to the northeast
into the Manitoba province today. As the departing low moves
northeast it leaves an area of divergence to possibly produce
showers along the Canadian border. Another shortwave creates more
precipitation chances through the Sunday morning.

Today: The departing low occludes as it starts to push northeast.
This will push the front closer to the arrowhead and leave North
Dakota fairly stable behind this front. However, there is a pocket
of moisture in the northern valley that may create some light
showers this afternoon and evening thanks to the overlapping area of
divergence near the Canadian border as this low pressure peels off.
These showers should dissipate as the sun goes down and sets for the
day. The pressure gradient will just be tight enough to give us some
gusty winds up to 30 mph if we mix up to the 925/850mb level tapping
into those 25 knot winds.

Friday and through the weekend: A brief period of drying will occur
during the day Friday. The atmosphere will remain fairly stable as
the Northern Plains enters a brief dry westerly flow. However,
another shortwave starts to move in early Saturday morning and give
us precipitation for Saturday with the most likely area being West
central Minnesota. rainfall amounts currently look light but that
could change slightly for better or worse in the next models runs as
the amount of dry air from Friday`s westerly pattern is better
analyzed. Sunday and Monday look dry as the Northern plains
transition between a Northern and Westerly flow thanks to a low
pressure system travels through the Central US.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Isolated thunderstorm chances will be possible in BJI through
08-09z as a boundary shifts east of the area. Otherwise, LLWS
will be possible for all TAF locations overnight as a low level
jet sets up aloft. Winds will be breezy overnight, with
sustained winds 10-15kts. Winds increase tomorrow mid morning
through the early evening, with gusts reaching 30kts for areas
along and west of the valley. Another chance for precipitation
tomorrow afternoon for DVL, with isolated chance for
thunderstorms.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...Spender