Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --026 FXUS63 KFGF 202326 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 626 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for hazardous weather impacts is low. && .UPDATE...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Shower activity has materialized between Minot and Devils Lake with these expected to translate east in the coming hours thus have added scattered shower mention through 02z with further changes being made as seen fit based on trends. Minimal accumulations expected with any passing rain but maybe enough to settle dusty roads and fields should rain reach the ground.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...Synopsis... As the surface high translates east overnight tonight, a shortwave/cold front will begin to push through the area after midnight. Showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, may cause some minor impacts, however given very limited instability impacts will be limited. Once showers exit as the front passes through Saturday morning, winds will increase from the west. Mixing potential is solid but winds aloft aren`t particularly strong (850 winds around 40-50 knots at best), so wind advisory potential appears fairly low at this time (20% chance). Having said that, gusts to 40 mph can at least be expected tomorrow. The remainder of the period will feature low probabilities for hazardous weather as the upper flow pattern keeps the majority of deeper moisture tagged to the Gulf. Heights based on ensembles are pretty stable so expect at least some recovery after cooler temperatures tomorrow but mostly seasonal temperatures through at least Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR Conditions through the period with chances for showers in the DVL vicinity tonight. Winds predominately southerly tonight turning W/NW tomorrow morning increasing to 15kts gusting 25-35kts between 15-23Z. Ceilings could drop as low as 030 to 040 but confidence remains that MVFR will not be reached.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...Perroux AVIATION...TT