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576
FXUS64 KFWD 162325
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
625 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
/This Evening Through Wednesday Morning/

A quiet first half of the week is in store across North and
Central Texas as mid-level ridging builds eastward atop the
region in response to an east/northeast-moving upper low over the
western CONUS. The increase in subsidence will keep everyone dry
through Wednesday morning, with no rain chances forecast for the
region. Persisting easterly winds tonight will keep overnight
temperatures a bit more mild in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Another upper low remains splayed across the Deep South/Tennessee
Valley, but will slowly begin to transit further east. Until
then, wrap- around moisture will bring in another episode of
morning stratus across portions of our East Texas counties.
Additionally, patchy fog will be possible around daybreak in our
east and northeastern zones, where slightly higher moisture will
make fog formation easier to occur.

Tuesday will be our last day of east/northeast winds, which will
once again aid in tempering afternoon temperatures. Expect highs
in the mid 80s to mid 90s, with the coolest temperatures across
East Texas. South/southeast winds will return overnight, and when
coupled with increasing heights aloft and the subsident airmass,
will slightly warm Wednesday morning temperatures further into
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Prater
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&&

.LONG TERM... 
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/Issued 127 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/
/Wednesday and Beyond/

An upper ridge will dominate the forecast period through most of the
long term, keeping temperatures above normal (highs in the mid to
upper 90s) and rain chances minimal. Plenteous gulf moisture will
keep the mornings warm and muggy (lows in the 70s). There`s some
hint in the models for rain this weekend as an upper low swings
through the four corners region, but currently chances are in the
10-15% range.

Day
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&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Overall easterly, though sometimes variable, winds will persist
through tonight, before shifting a bit more ESE-SE near daybreak
tomorrow. Speeds should be light enough (AOB 5-6 kts) to preclude
a flow change during this time. Another deck of stratus is
expected to move into North Texas from the east early-mid tomorrow
morning, but any MVFR cigs should remain to the east of D10. Have
introduced a mention of FEW-SCT015 to account for any low clouds
near the edge of the stratus deck, with best likelihood at
DFW/DAL. Will continue to monitor for any further eastward
expansion for a future TEMPO/prevailing inclusion. Otherwise, VFR
will prevail at the TAF sites with Tuesday afternoon winds
generally out of the E (varying from ENE-ESE).

Prater
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  90  74  95  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                69  93  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               68  85  68  91  70 /   0   5   0   0   0
Denton              68  92  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            68  90  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              70  93  73  96  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             68  90  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           70  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              70  95  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       68  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$