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308
FXUS64 KFWD 210400
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1100 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
/Overnight through Friday night/

Although the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto continue to move
west across Mexico, deep moisture remains well to the north and
east of the circulation, keeping scattered to broken clouds across
North and Central Texas. A few showers on the outer periphery of
the circulation were moving across portions of Central Texas this
evening. These showers will dissipate in the next couple of hours,
leaving the forecast area rain-free overnight.

Easterly low level flow will keep dew points in the upper 60s to
lower 70s overnight with lows remaining slightly higher than the
dew point. Afternoon highs Friday will warm into the upper 80s to
the lower 90s, which is near or slightly below normal for this
time of year. Deep moisture will keep dew points from mixing out,
so heat index values Friday afternoon will range from the middle
90s to around 100.

Subsidence under a building ridge aloft will keep Friday through
the weekend rain-free with a warming trend. Summer weather is
here and right on time.

79
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&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 206 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

The main headline for the upcoming weekend and next week will be
hot, rain-free and humid conditions. Upper-level ridging will
take hold of the region and result in highs in the mid 90s
Saturday warming into the mid/upper 90s Sunday. Another area of
low pressure near the Bay of Campeche has been outlined by NHC for
potential tropical cyclone development (50%) in the next 7 days.
The strength of the ridge will dampen any real impacts, however,
outside of increased moisture from the Gulf sending widespread
heat indices above the triple digit mark by the start of next
week.

This heat will unfortunately continue into the midweek, with
afternoon temperatures forecast in the upper 90s and breaking 100
degrees in some areas Monday into Wednesday, along with heat indices
nearing the 105-110 F range Tuesday and Wednesday regionwide. These
hot "feels like" temperatures will increase the potential for
heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable
populations. Overnight lows Tuesday night will also be quite warm
in the upper 70s (and some low 80s in North TX), increasing the
likelihood of heat stress from a lack of relief in the overnight
periods. Regardless of exact temperatures, this is the North &
Central TX`s first potential for an extended duration of hot
temperatures this season, and precautions to protect yourself and
your loved ones from the heat and resultant heat-related illnesses
should be taken. Guidance still indicates a potential for the
ridge to break down in the mid to late week period, however any
rain chances returning will likely hold off until Wednesday. With
the center of the ridge off to the west, NW flow aloft may allow
for some lucky areas to see rain, although the overall chance of
receiving any meaningful rainfall is quite low. While some
deterministic runs are slightly more bullish Wednesday into
Thursday, ensemble guidance is only highlighting a 20% chance for
more than 0.1" of rain for those north of HWY 380 and east of
I-35, with the rest of the region unlikely (10% chance or less)
to receive rainfall. As always, we will continue to monitor this
potential, however the greatest attention should be directed
towards the heat in the next 3-7 days.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected overnight with scattered to broken
middle and high clouds. MVFR ceilings are possible across Central
Texas towards sunrise Friday where low level moisture is most
plentiful. Waco could see some temporary ceilings between 2000 and
3000 ft, especially shortly after sunrise through mid morning
Friday when surface heating increases. Any low ceilings should
scatter before midday but scattered to broken middle and high
clouds will linger through the afternoon.

An east to southeast wind will prevail through Friday night at
speeds generally less than 11 knots.

79
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  93  77  96  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                72  91  75  94  74 /  10  10   0   0   0
Paris               74  91  72  94  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              75  93  74  97  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            75  93  74  96  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              77  93  77  97  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             74  92  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           73  93  76  95  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  91  72  94  72 /  20  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  91  73  95  74 /   5   5   0   0   0
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$