-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
863
FXUS64 KHGX 051158
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
658 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Latest radar and satellite imagery shows a progressing MCS
approaching the area from the north, at the time of writing (3AM
CDT) located just north of I-20. The primary forecast concern of
this period will be this feature`s entrance into SE TX this morning
and afternoon, where there will be a nonzero chance for an embedded
stronger storm or two to impact portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods. While the convective environment will be limited by the
presence of an 850mb capping inversion and relatively low effective
layer shear (~20kt), the MCS appears to have developed a fairly
robust cold pool and HiRes guidance shows the system remaining
fairly organized as it traverses locations north of the I-10
corridor before entering a diminishing trend thereafter. Observed
wind gusts in the DFW metro have at times reached around 50 mph, and
we could see similarly strong gusts across the far northern zones in
the next 3-5 hours as the system pushes southward. An isolated
severe wind gust can`t be ruled out, along with the potential for
some hail. Chances for strong storms will diminish as the line
pushes further southward, though any mesoscale boundaries that
propagate from this morning`s convective activity will have the
potential to trigger some additional isolated storms this afternoon.
Rainfall amounts will be limited by the complex`s quick motion,
though a quick 0.5" or so can`t be ruled out where any stronger
storms do develop. Expect the line of storms to reach the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods just before sunrise, the Houston metro by mid-
morning, and the coast by early afternoon. Activity should generally
diminish by mid-afternoon.

Hot and humid conditions will otherwise characterize the immediate
term (and, as described below, the long term as well). Another day
with highs in the low/mid 90s is expected today, while dew points in
the upper 70s will keep Heat Index values in the vicinity of 105.
Ongoing convection (and associated cloud cover) may at times blunt
the impact of diurnal heating and thus a few locations could see
highs lower than what is currently forecast depending on the
system`s mesoscale evolution. Tomorrow, with synoptic ridging
building back into the South Central CONUS, temperatures may reach 1-
2 degF warmer. However, a slight drop off in dew points due to the
loss of strong onshore gradient winds will keep Heat Index values
below Advisory criteria for the time being.

Overnight low temperatures will remain in the mid 70s tonight and
tomorrow, a few degrees lower than the record-breaking values of the
past several days.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The mid-level high will be centered generally along the TX/NM border
on Friday, so we`ll be well under the influence of subsidence aloft.
This means that rain chances are slim to none for Friday and the
early half of the weekend. It`s meteorological summer, so there`s
usually an inversely proportional relationship between our high
temperatures and rain chances. So, the lower the rain chances...the
higher our temperatures are. Daytime temperatures on Friday through
Sunday will mainly range from the low to mid 90s, but it wouldn`t be
out of the realm of possibilities to see some isolated spots reach
the upper 90s on Friday. With an upper level low traversing the
Great Lakes region into the northeastern CONUS, we`ll see a frontal
boundary attempt to backdoor in on Friday. A subsidence inversion
layer aloft will help to keep a lid on convection though...at least
for now.

Things begin to change early next week as a shortwave trough
wrapping around that sane upper level low over the northeastern
CONUS both weakens the ridge and pushes the main ridge axis
westward. This places us more in the path of incoming shortwaves to
act as the source of lift for the plentiful moisture and instability
that comes with being a neighbor to the Gulf. The highest rain
chances come on late Monday into Tuesday as a frontal boundary looks
to push through the region. PW values surge above 2.0", so some
locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well. Daily chances for
showers/storms return for next week, but on the plus side that also
means that temperatures will be a little bit "cooler". We exchange
our high temperatures in the low to mid 90s for highs in the upper
80s to low 90s. Still a bit early to have too much confidence in a
June FROPA, but if it does it would be the tail end of a boundary
with the parent low located in the northeastern CONUS.
Essentially...don`t expect a miracle...BUT there is potential for
portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods to see low temperatures in
the upper 60s early next week!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

MVFR cigs are generally prevailing area-wide, and should remain at
these levels over the next few hours. The main concern for the
current TAF period continues to surround the approach of a line of
thunderstorms over the next 3-6 hours, which could produce gusty
winds and brief heavy downpours. In general, the chance for
thunderstorms will be highest to the north of I-10 with activity
becoming more scattered in nature as the line progresses to the
south. Some isolated thunderstorms may prevail into the afternoon,
with winds becoming variable at times. Tonight, a persistent
southerly wind will redevelop, becoming light overnight. Periods
of MVFR cigs, and potentially some patchy fog, are expected
overnight into tomorrow morning.

Cady
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Moderate onshore flow and elevated seas around 5 to 7 feet will
continue through the morning hours before beginning to subside. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Matagorda Bay and the
Gulf waters south of it through early this morning with caution
flags for Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters south of it. Caution
flags will persist for the bays and coastal waters through the
morning hours, and for the offshore waters through the late
afternoon. A decaying line of showers/storms will push off of the
coast late this morning and may carry some lingering gusty winds.

The high risk of rip currents will continue throughout much of the
work week due to the persistent onshore flow. Water levels along
some coastal sites reached near 3.0-3.5 ft MLLW on Tuesday morning
during high tide and are expected to reach near the same this
morning as well, so a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued to
cover both the high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

There are currently four River Flood Warnings in effect: three along
the Trinity River and one on the Navasota River. The Navasota River
near Normangee (currently in minor flood stage) crested in moderate
flood stage over the weekend and is continuing on its gradual
recession and will fall below flood stage later today. The Trinity
River near Riverside and near Moss Bluff will remain in minor flood
stage until further notice. The Trinity River near Liberty is
currently rising in minor flood stage and is expected to crest in
moderate flood stage later this week. There isn`t a River Flood
Warning out yet for the Trinity River near Crockett, but the latest
forecast indicates that it will rise into minor flood stage towards
the end of the week.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as river flooding continues.

Batiste

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Going 5 for 5 would be an OUTSTANDING night for a baseball
player...going 5 for 5 on breaking record high minimum
temperatures isn`t quite as exciting. On June 4th, all five
climate sites either tied or broke their records for high minimum
temperatures as we saw widespread low temperatures in the low 80s.

- College Station: 80F (tied the record from 1902)
- Houston Intercontinental (Bush): 82F (breaks record of 80F
  from 1998)
- Houston/Hobby: 82F (breaks record of 81F from 1998)
- Palacios: 82F (breaks record of 80F from 2012)
- Galveston: 83F (breaks record of 81F from 2008)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
College Station (CLL)  94  74  94  73 /  50  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  94  76  95  74 /  50  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  79  90  79 /  30  10  10   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-350-
     370.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-350.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ335-355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
     GMZ370.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
     GMZ375.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste