-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
142
FXUS62 KKEY 230231
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1031 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1031 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

While there are synoptic factors at play in the widespread
development of showers and thunderstorms today, mesoscale
boundaries have take the front seat over the past few hours.
Outflow boundaries have helped convection flourish this afternoon
and evening. A few stronger showers remain across the Florida
Keys coastal waters, but most of the earlier convection has now
become stratiform rain or dissipated. The 00Z sounding sampled a
small pocket of drier air with some meager inhibition in the lower
levels, which is likely due to the atmosphere being worked over
from the earlier activity. Otherwise, PW values are well above
normal and adequate CAPE is still available if storms can poke
through the small inversion that starts around 980 mb.
Interestingly enough, despite all of the rainfall around the
forecast area, only a select few island communities in the Upper
Keys received rainfall amounts over a tenth of an inch. The
gradient between an expansive high in the western North Atlantic
and the broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula
remains stronger than most model guidance is suggesting it should
be at this hour. This could be due to various boundaries moving
across the observation sites, as well as the remaining light
showers moving across the forecast area. Regardless, winds should
begin to drop overnight. While the activity has calmed down as of
now, the exact timing that showers and thunderstorms will begin to
develop again is somewhat uncertain. The atmosphere is currently
worked over, however, with the weakly cyclonic flow and some
support aloft, it can reinvigorate the environment more quickly.
Hi-res models are hinting at more shower developing an hour or two
before sunrise, so we will continue to monitor this. Temperatures
will drop to near 80 degrees outside of rain-cooled areas
overnight and dew points will remain in the mid 70s. No changes
were made to the previous forecast.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 1031 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the interaction
between low pressure off the east coast of Florida, high pressure
centered north of Bermuda, and broad low pressure in the vicinity
of the Yucatan Peninsula will result in gentle to moderate east to
southeast breezes becoming gentle late tonight. Moisture pulled
into our area via the low to the west will lead to periods of
unsettled weather for the rest of the weekend. High pressure
building over the North Atlantic early next week will result in
light to gentle southeast to south breezes and a return to near-
normal rain and thunder chances.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A few isolated showers are possible near both terminals over the
next few hours, and a TEMPO is currently in place for MVFR
conditions at EYW. Aside from any isolated activity, mainly VFR
conditions will continue for the next few hours while there is a
lull in convection near the terminals. The re-development of
more widespread showers and thunderstorms looks to commence just
before or around sunrise, so have kept mention of VCSH in the TAFs
through the entire period. Surface winds will gradually decrease
overnight, and some MOS guidance is suggesting a brief period of
light and variable winds in the early morning hours. Otherwise,
winds will remain from the east to southeast between 7 and 11
knots outside of any convection.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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On this day in 1990, the daily record rainfall of 4.30" was
recorded in Marathon. This is also the wettest day ever recorded
in the Marathon area for the month of June. Rainfall records date
back to 1950.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Key West  82  89  81  89 /  50  50  40  30
Marathon  81  88  81  88 /  50  50  40  30
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&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....DP

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