-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
439
FXUS62 KKEY 181439
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1039 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

It has been a fairly typical June day, with showers developing
within the easterly flow across the Florida Keys coastal waters. A
few light showers moved across the island chain earlier this
morning, but have since been relegated to the southwest of the
Lower Keys. Measurable rainfall has been limited due to the
shallower nature of the showers, as well as the fast movement of
this activity. The 12Z sounding sampled decent moisture in the
lower- levels, but drier air has infiltrated from around 750 mb
and up with a very dry layer from 500-300 mb. This is what has
likely inhibited thunder within any of the showers. The Florida
Keys remain wedged in between an expansive high off the Northeast
coast and a broad low (Central American Gyre) across the Yucatan.
The gradient has tightened over the past 24 hours between these
two features and winds along the Reef are currently being measured
between 18 and 24 knots, with gusts as high as 29 knots. Breezy
conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the
day. No appreciable changes are expected to the atmospheric
profile in terms of moisture or inhibition, and 30% rain chances
look appropriate through this afternoon. No changes were made to
the forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal
waters. From synopsis, Strong surface high pressure centered off
the New England coast working in tandem with falling pressures
over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche is expected to
result in moderate to fresh breezes today through mid to late
week. An area of low pressure may develop mid week a few hundred
miles north of the central Bahamas towards mid week and move
towards the north to central Florida coastline. This may result in
a slackening of breezes.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH today and
into tonight. Scattered showers continue to stream across the
Straits of Florida and towards the Lower Keys. VCSH will therefore
persist at EYW with a lull in activity dropping MTH out for now.
Periodic MVFR CIGs and reduced VIS will be possible with passing
showers, but any extended periods of deteriorated conditions will be
addressed with TEMPOs. Near surface winds will continue to be out of
the east to southeast at near 15 knots with gusts up to near 25
knots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
In 1972, during the early morning hours, Tropical Storm Agnes
passed northward through the Yucatan channel. The outer rainbands
of Tropical Storm Agnes spawned at least three, to as many as six
tornadoes in the Florida Keys, including a F2 tornado in Big
Coppitt Key, a F2 tornado in Key West, and a F1 tornado in Conch
Key. Total damage was estimated at just over $500,000 (1972 USD).
About 40 people were injured in Big Coppitt Key, making the Big
Coppitt Key tornado the worst in the history of the Florida Keys
in terms of total number of injuries.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  89  82  89  81 /  40  30  40  40
Marathon  89  82  89  81 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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