-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
379
FXUS62 KKEY 140658
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
258 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Rains have mostly ended across the island chain after another
round of thunderstorms last evening. Southerly winds have resumed
and average 7 to 18 knots at the Reef. The rain cooled
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s have recovered to near 80 for
most island communities. Rainfall totals based on gauge and radar
derived totals suggest widespread values between 2 to 3" in the
past 12-hours.

.FORECAST...
Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted trough axis
slowly lumbering east through Central Florida. A surface trough
extends from Central Florida to the Yucatan, which will be the
focusing mechanism for another round of storms this afternoon. The
low-level vorticity analyses from CIMSS suggest the cyclonic
curvature is at a lower latitude than previous days. So, does the
line of storms kick-off a little closer to the Keys today? There
is reasonable consensus from the suite of CAMs that an additional
3 to 5" of rainfall is possible today as the developing storms sag
southward slowly through the Keys. A Flood Watch Remains in effect
for the Keys and the Weather Prediction Center advertises a
Slight Risk (15%) for Excessive Rainfall through Friday night.

A pattern change is on the way though. The upper trough will lift
northeast out of Florida Friday night and Saturday allowing a
large mean layer ridge to take root over the southeastern US and
the extreme western North Atlantic. Winds will shift around to the
east and freshen Sunday night and Monday in response to the mean
layer ridge and the tightening Central American Gyre over Central
America. An extended period of fresh east to southeast breezes and
slightly above normal (~30%) rain chances are likely Tuesday
through Thursday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Mainly moderate breezes and another day of unsettled weather
featuring thundery squalls and episodes of heavy rainfall will
persist today and tonight. Rain and thunder chances will decrease
gradually starting Saturday. Breezes will freshen by Sunday night,
with moderate to fresh easterly breezes expected Monday through
Tuesday night.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. For the time being, frequent light shower activity has
diminished but later in the TAF period we could see more periods of
wet weather. Once timing confidence increase will include VCSH in
the TAFs again. Near surface winds will be southerly at near 10
knots.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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On this day in 1957, the daily record high temperature of 94F was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back
to 1872.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Key West  86  80  89  82 /  70  50  50  30
Marathon  87  80  89  82 /  70  50  40  20
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&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...Flood Watch through this afternoon for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
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&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....11

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