-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
294
FXUS62 KKEY 210223
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1023 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Currently - The synoptic setup this evening is fairly complicated.
The local pressure gradient is enhanced by the combination of an
Atlantic ridge that extends through the southeastern United
States and persistent troughing along Central America. Meanwhile,
a surface through mid level inverted trough is embedded within the
through mid level. This trough was the result of a large upper
cut off low that is now centered in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. This inverted trough has resulted in a weakening of the
pressure gradient in and around Florida and the Bahamas, however,
this decrease is most prominent to our north. As a result, local
winds remain moderate to fresh out of the east. Satellite imagery
indicates a ribbon of drier air remains wrapped around the
periphery of the trough. The combination of the weaker steering
flow and drier and is likely contributing to diminished shower
and thunderstorm activity. With that said, this evenings sounding
did indicate, not surprisingly, considerable CAPE, but with
limited moisture through the lower levels.

Short Term Update - Broad troughing will continue to linger across
Central America and will try to maintain moderate to fresh
easterly breezes across the Keys. The inverted trough to north
northeast will continue to drive west northwestward towards the
southeast Atlantic Coast and may result in a subtle decrease in
breezes overnight. The combination of lower level drier air but
broad lower to mid level troughing will continue to dominate local
weather. Expect a chance for showers and thunderstorm activity due
to CAPE remaining plentiful and inhibition limited or nonexistent.
Aside from convective influences, expect overnight lows near 80
with dew points remaining in the mid 70s.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Broad low pressure will continue to linger across Central America.
While there is an Atlantic ridge stretching through the
southeastern United States, an inverted trough is embedded within
its southern flank and has contributed to a weakening pressure
gradient. However, much of this decrease will be north of our
area. As a result, surface winds will be moderate out of the east.
A slight downward trend is expected as the inverted trough pulls
closer to the Florida Peninsula. Only minor adjustments made in
the evening marine update.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the
night. With that said, there will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the broader area and may impact the terminals
with relatively short spells of sub VFR conditions. Surface winds
will be out of the east at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 15 to 20-
knots.
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&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....DR

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