


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --168 FXUS63 KLMK 101035 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 635 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Patchy fog will be possible early this morning. A few stray showers are also possible mainly east of I-65. * Warm and humid conditions continue into the weekend, with additional shower and storm chances for Saturday and especially Sunday as a cold front approaches the area. Severe weather is not expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Things are mostly quiet this morning, although a couple of issues to discuss. First off, still hanging onto a few showers and rumbles of thunder early this morning. One cluster is down toward the Lake Cumberland region, and the other is over southern IN and northern KY. Both are slowly moving ESE, and will handle with some iso mention in the pre-dawn hours. The other issue is patchy fog development. So far, obs and nighttime microphysics imagery are showing transient and patchy fog development. Will continue to monitor obs this morning, but patchy fog mention in the grids/forecast should cover it. Baggy troughiness will continue over our area today, although most of the trough axis will be east of our area. As a result, only expect isolated to widely scattered coverage today, and this will mainly be east of I-65. Have some isolated chances up to along the Ohio River, but these will generally be less than 20%. As far as storm mode goes, should be the same story, different day. Any storm that does develop will be in the presence of very weak deep layer shear, and relatively poor mid level lapse rates. As a result, only pulse modes will be expected with brief heavy rainfall, and a gusty of wind with any collapsing updrafts. Outside of the meager precip chances, should see a good amount of sunshine combined with a steady SW wind. The end result will be warmer temps in the upper 80s and low 90s. Convection should wane around and after sunset with the loss of heating. Mild overnight lows are expected with low mostly in the 70 to 75 degree range. Another decent fog signal is possible later tonight under good radiational cooling conditions, and moist low levels. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Friday - Sunday... Weak zonal flow aloft will be in place on Friday, but overall there doesn`t appear to be much of a triggering mechanism in place to focus storm development. In addition, some forecast sounding data shows a subsidence inversion around H7. Moderate instability is expected to develop this day, and will likely see at least some isolated development once convective temps are reached, but overall looking for pretty minimal coverage of slow moving pulse storm modes. Look for temps peaking in the upper 80s and low 90s with partly sunny skies and a steady SW wind. Saturday and especially Sunday should see a trend toward better storm coverage peaking each afternoon and early evening. This will occur as central CONUS troughing begins to sag into our area, bringing a bit more of a focus for storm triggering. Sunday will also feature a surface cold front dropping into our area, so this is the highest confidence day for storm coverage, and will continue mention of 60-70% chances this day. The hottest day of the weekend should be Saturday with most highs in the lower 90s. By Sunday, expect a couple degrees lower given increased storm coverage and sky cover. Monday is lower confidence, but will definitely have to leave shower and storm chances in as some data suggests the front and baggy upper trough will linger for one more day. If this does play out, coverage will likely be highest across our southern and eastern portions of the CWA. Highs are back in the upper 80s to near 90 by this time as the front has some minimal influence on the area. Tuesday - Wednesday... Lower confidence for the mid week portion of the forecast as models try to build a brief upper ridge over the SE CONUS. The problem is that our region appears to be on the northern periphery of this feature, and could subject us to continued diurnally driven shower and storm chances. The stronger westerlies will be displaced just a bit to our NW, but close enough that they could provide some triggering influence into our area. For now, will just forecast warm temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s with some isolated to widely scattered shower and storm chances. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 634 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Currently seeing mix of stratus and fog at LEX and HNB, otherwise the remaining sites are VFR. Both LEX and HNB are down near or below minimums and this will likely persist through 9 or 10 AM EDT. Could have a period here this morning where some MVFR or even brief IFR stratus does impact the other sites, but will stay mostly optimistic as surface heating will commence soon and should help mitigate too much additional stratus development. Should return to VFR at all sites by late morning to midday with a light to steady SW to W surface wind. Winds go calm or light and variable around sunset tonight with another shot at some restricting fog. Have already started to hint at this for a couple of the sites for later tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...BJS