


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --613 FXUS63 KLMK 091738 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 138 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to scattered showers and storms could produce locally gusty winds and brief torrential rainfall today, mainly in the afternoon. * Warm and humid all week and into the weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Organized severe weather is not expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Scattered light rain or sprinkles are ongoing this morning as we remain underneath a vort max associated with an upper shortwave. Cloud cover has helped slow down the diurnal temp curve, with most stations reporting in the upper 70s and low 80s at this hour. As a result, expect temps to max out in the mid-80s for most. Scattered showers and storms remain possible this afternoon, with marginal CAPE but weak shear available. Higher PWATs are also expected, potentially near 2 inches for some, so some heavy rainfall could be possible for this afternoon. Expect the cloud cover to hold for the day, which will help keep our temps a few degrees cooler today, and possibly result in weaker destabilization. Overall forecast remains in good shape, with just some minor tweaking to PoPs given the current radar trends. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 403 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Mid level trough will slowly work across the Ohio Valley today with an associated vort max crossing IN and central KY later this morning and afternoon. At the sfc, a weak cold front will drop southeast across IL/IN during the day into the evening. Good moisture advection ahead of this feature will allow PWAT values to rise to around 2.00" with a good amount of instability around 2000 J/kg in the afternoon. All of this along with daytime heating and the muggy airmass will allow for the development of isolated to scattered showers and storms. While the best chance is during the afternoon, we could see some shower/storm activity in the morning as the shortwave trough and vort max start to work in from the west. It will remain warm with highs in the mid/upper 80s and dew points near 70. Once again the lack of shear will keep the activity sub severe with torrential rainfall, lighting and possible gusty winds as the main threat. As the weakening boundary approaches from the northwest and the the shortwave trough stalls over the Ohio Valley, we could see a few lingering showers and thunderstorm overnight. Cloud cover will keep lows in the upper 60s/low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 403 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 A secondary cold front will drop southward through the Ohio Valley on Thursday. This boundary is associated with a sfc low that will be working across the eastern Great Lakes and southern Ontario during the day Thursday. Front is not expected to make it into our CWA but we will see slightly drier air filter behind the passing trough axis as PWAT values drop to around 1.50". While we remain in the warm and muggy airmass, with continued diurnally driven showers and storms both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Like the past several days, any convection will remain unorganized and subsevere producing heavy rainfall, lighting and potential gusty winds. Highs will also remain warm in the upper 80s to low 90s. A series of shortwaves troughs and a frontal boundary will work across the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley over the weekend. We will continue to remain warm and muggy with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s both Saturday and Sunday with dew points in the lower 70s. Shower and storm chances continue each afternoon with the peak of daytime heating. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Cigs have been bouncing between VFR and MVFR today as a low stratus layer blankets the region. Isolated to scattered showers are also across the area, which will remain a possibility for all terminals the rest of the afternoon. By this evening, drier weather is expected, along with risings cigs. VFR is expected tonight, but with light winds and low level moisture lingering, some patchy dense fog may be possible, resulting in a few hours of impacts to vis. We`ll see terminals return to VFR by tomorrow morning.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJP SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...CJP