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716
FXUS64 KLZK 240534 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A surface Low pressure system is moving across the Ozarks region,
with a cold front sweeping across the state Monday through Monday
night, producing rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these
storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and hail. Isolated heavy rain with localized flooding
will also be a concern. Much of the strong to severe activity is
expected to be mainly across central to north/northeast Arkansas,
while more general showers and isolated storms develop across the
rest of the forecast area.

Northwestern portions of the state will benefit from much of the
cloud cover and rain early in the day, with their high temperatures
expected to remain in the mid to upper 70s. Elsewhere in the state,
afternoon high temperatures, ahead of the cold front, are expected
to max out in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

The cold front will be across our eastern border by early Tuesday
and rain chances look to be confined to far eastern and southeast
portions of the CWA through the day Tuesday. Cooler and drier air
will begin moving in and high temperatures across the state will top
out in the upper 70s to the mid 80s. By Wednesday, high temperatures
are forecast in the lower to upper 70s.

An upper Low will dig southward across the region Wednesday. This
upper level forcing, along with low-level convergence along a
surface trough, will produce another round of widespread cloud cover
and rain/storm chances across the CWA by the mid-week period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

At the start of the period a fairly robust H500 cyclone over the
state will be surrounded by ridges in place across the western US
and along the Gulf Coast/Southeast US. This will effectively cut it
off from the mean flow.

This feature will remain over the state through late week. While
this low rotates its way around the vicinity of the state, sfc
ridging will be in place just to the north with the remnant cold
front to the south and east. This setup will provide persistent
cloud cover, occasional rain chances and below normal temperatures
across Arkansas.

Things become more uncertain by late week into next weekend as what
is likely to become Helene moves inland somewhere across portions of
north FL/southern GA. As these features remain surrounded by mid-
level ridges, this could lead to some mutual interaction between
systems across the region.

If these two features were to interact as depicted by the most
recent few model runs, there could be an axis of heavy rainfall in
close proximity to the resulting cyclone. Additionally, below normal
temperatures would certainly persist as long as the H500 low remains
nearby.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Sfc frnt was noted acrs N/Wrn AR near 24/06Z, w/ low IFR CIGs
moving invof the frnt. VCSH activity was also developing ahead of
the frnt, and expect covg of precip to incrs acrs Nrn Cntrl AR to
N/Ern in the next few hrs. Otherwise, patchy fog wl be possible
acrs the FA, w/ MVFR/IFR VISBY`s persisting over Nrn terminals
thru 24/14Z. Thru the day Tues, condns should improve behind the
frnt, w/ skies staying mainly Bkn over the FA, and light Nrly
winds.

/72/
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Batesville AR     78  60  76  58 /  10  20  30  20
Camden AR         85  63  80  58 /  10  30  30  10
Harrison AR       74  55  74  54 /  10  20  30  20
Hot Springs AR    85  62  81  59 /   0  40  30  10
Little Rock   AR  84  65  80  62 /   0  40  20  20
Monticello AR     86  65  81  61 /  10  20  30  20
Mount Ida AR      84  59  81  56 /   0  50  30  10
Mountain Home AR  75  57  75  56 /  10  20  20  20
Newport AR        78  61  75  59 /  10  20  30  30
Pine Bluff AR     84  63  79  58 /  10  30  30  20
Russellville AR   83  60  81  58 /   0  40  20  10
Searcy AR         82  61  78  59 /  10  30  30  20
Stuttgart AR      82  63  78  60 /  10  30  30  20
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&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...72