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425
FXUS64 KLZK 232250 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
550 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A surface Low pressure system is moving across the Ozarks region,
with a cold front sweeping across the state Monday through Monday
night, producing rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these
storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and hail. Isolated heavy rain with localized flooding
will also be a concern. Much of the strong to severe activity is
expected to be mainly across central to north/northeast Arkansas,
while more general showers and isolated storms develop across the
rest of the forecast area.

Northwestern portions of the state will benefit from much of the
cloud cover and rain early in the day, with their high temperatures
expected to remain in the mid to upper 70s. Elsewhere in the state,
afternoon high temperatures, ahead of the cold front, are expected
to max out in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

The cold front will be across our eastern border by early Tuesday
and rain chances look to be confined to far eastern and southeast
portions of the CWA through the day Tuesday. Cooler and drier air
will begin moving in and high temperatures across the state will top
out in the upper 70s to the mid 80s. By Wednesday, high temperatures
are forecast in the lower to upper 70s.

An upper Low will dig southward across the region Wednesday. This
upper level forcing, along with low-level convergence along a
surface trough, will produce another round of widespread cloud cover
and rain/storm chances across the CWA by the mid-week period.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

At the start of the period a fairly robust H500 cyclone over the
state will be surrounded by ridges in place across the western US
and along the Gulf Coast/Southeast US. This will effectively cut it
off from the mean flow.

This feature will remain over the state through late week. While
this low rotates its way around the vicinity of the state, sfc
ridging will be in place just to the north with the remnant cold
front to the south and east. This setup will provide persistent
cloud cover, occasional rain chances and below normal temperatures
across Arkansas.

Things become more uncertain by late week into next weekend as what
is likely to become Helene moves inland somewhere across portions of
north FL/southern GA. As these features remain surrounded by mid-
level ridges, this could lead to some mutual interaction between
systems across the region.

If these two features were to interact as depicted by the most
recent few model runs, there could be an axis of heavy rainfall in
close proximity to the resulting cyclone. Additionally, below normal
temperatures would certainly persist as long as the H500 low remains
nearby.

&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Some scattered convection will remain possible into the early Tue
time frame as a weak cold front drops SE through the state
through this TAF period. Expect the drier/more stable air to
filter into the area by midday Tue...with improving conditions and
lack of precip expected by late in the TAF period. Between any
convection...some MVFR CIGs/VIS may be possible before the drier
air filters in.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Batesville AR     65  78  60  76 /  60  10  10  30
Camden AR         69  85  63  80 /  40  20  20  30
Harrison AR       60  74  55  74 /  50  10  10  30
Hot Springs AR    65  85  62  81 /  40   0  30  30
Little Rock   AR  69  84  65  80 /  50   0  20  20
Monticello AR     71  86  65  81 /  40  30  10  30
Mount Ida AR      62  84  59  81 /  30   0  30  30
Mountain Home AR  62  75  57  75 /  60  10  10  20
Newport AR        67  78  61  75 /  70  10  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     69  84  63  79 /  50  20  20  30
Russellville AR   63  83  60  81 /  40  10  30  20
Searcy AR         67  82  61  78 /  60  10  20  30
Stuttgart AR      69  82  63  78 /  60  20  20  30
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&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...62