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034
FXUS64 KLZK 211846
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
146 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across
northern and northeast Arkansas through late this evening, as a
short-wave trough moves across the southern Midwest region and
northern Arkansas. The main threats with this activity will be heavy
rain with potential for localized flooding.

The aforementioned short-wave trough is moving along anticyclonic
flow associated with a widespread High situated across much of
the southern and southeastern CONUS. With the exception of
north/northeast AR, the rest of the state is experiencing mainly
hot and dry conditions through much of the weekend, with high
temperatures in the 90s expected. A heat advisory is in effect
across much of central to western portions of the CWA through
Saturday evening, with heat index values between 105-110F
forecast.

Showers and potential for storms will return by Sunday afternoon,
across northern portions of the state, spreading across much of the
rest of Arkansas by Monday midday, as a cold front pushes eastward
across the region. Widespread cloud cover and rainfall will keep
temperatures on the lower end across western and northern Arkansas
Monday, in the lower 70s to mid 80s. At this time, it looks like
central, southern and eastern Arkansas will have time to warm up to
the 90s Monday, before cloud cover and rain spread into these areas.
We can all look forward to much cooler air in the long term period
next week.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Significant changes are expected across the state at the start of
the period. H500 trough across the Central Plains will continue its
way toward the Great Lakes which will compress the srn H500 ridge
southward. At the sfc, a cold front will be making its way across
the state. This front will usher in cooler temperatures.

Through the middle to later part of next week, a second mid-level
trough looks to dive S-SE from the Northern Plains toward the Mid-MS
Valley. As this occurs it may intensify and become cutoff somewhere
in the vicinity of the state as H500 ridges flank it to the east and
west. At the sfc, ridging will settle in from the Great Lakes S-SW
toward the state. This will lead to a period of fairly cool
temperatures and some occasional rain chances/periodic cloud
cover.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Batesville AR     71  92  70  84 /  20  30  20  50
Camden AR         70  93  71  90 /   0   0   0  20
Harrison AR       70  89  66  74 /  20  50  50  80
Hot Springs AR    73  94  72  88 /   0  10  10  40
Little Rock   AR  74  94  74  91 /  10  10  10  30
Monticello AR     72  94  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      70  93  69  86 /   0  10  10  50
Mountain Home AR  70  90  68  77 /  30  50  50  70
Newport AR        70  91  71  86 /  20  20  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     71  94  72  91 /   0   0   0  20
Russellville AR   72  94  71  85 /  10  20  20  60
Searcy AR         70  94  71  88 /  20  10  10  40
Stuttgart AR      72  93  73  90 /  10   0  10  20
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&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-
042>045-054>056-121-122-130-137-138-230-237-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...71