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128
FXUS64 KLZK 180835
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
335 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

To begin the period, high pressure is currently centered just to the
east of the state...this will continue to provide southerly flow
into the area. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across a good portion of the state due to tropical moisture moving
into the area. CAMs are showing the possibility of more coverage
across the state than yesterday`s showers and storms...but lighter
in nature. The chance for severe weather is low at this time,
however, a few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
The main hazard with these storms would be hail and damaging wind
gusts. QPF amounts are likely to stay below a half inch across the
CWA.

A slight "cooldown" is expected Monday and Tuesday compared to where
temperatures have been the last few days. Highs are expected to be
in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Humidity will make heat index values
feel slightly higher. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The period will begin with a large ridge of high pressure gradually
building over Arkansas from the north/east. Under the ridge,
temperatures will be above to well above average, and conditions
will be largely dry. Afternoon heat indices do not look horrible
initially, and are generally below triple digits Thursday/Friday
given dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.

During the weekend/early next week, the ridge will wobble toward the
southern Plains/southern Rockies. A strong storm system will track
from the central Plains to the upper Midwest and eventually into
Canada. The system will try to drag a cold front toward Arkansas,
but the front will have difficulty penetrating through the eastern
periphery of the ridge. Even so, moisture will increase a bit ahead
of the front, and this may result in isolated afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms. Heat index values may approach 100 degrees in
places on Saturday, and range from 100 to 105 degrees
Sunday/Monday.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Scattered shower continue across portions of southeastern Arkansas
as of the midnight hour. These showers will likely diminish
through the overnight hours with most terminals across the south
and central Arkansas returning to VFR/MVFR conditions. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will remain out of the south
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Batesville AR     84  70  87  69 /  30  20   0   0
Camden AR         87  71  89  71 /  20  10  10   0
Harrison AR       85  66  85  67 /  20  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    86  70  86  71 /  20  10  10   0
Little Rock   AR  86  72  89  73 /  30  10   0   0
Monticello AR     86  72  90  72 /  20  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      87  68  85  69 /  20  10  10   0
Mountain Home AR  84  68  85  69 /  30  10  10   0
Newport AR        86  72  89  71 /  30  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     87  72  89  72 /  20  10   0   0
Russellville AR   87  70  86  72 /  30  10  10   0
Searcy AR         86  70  89  69 /  30  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      86  73  88  72 /  20  10   0   0
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&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...73