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529
FXUS64 KLZK 221902
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
202 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The ridge of high pressure across the southern to northeastern CONUS
is breaking down, as an upper trough, surface Low pressure and cold
front move across the south-central and Midwestern states. These
features will continue to develop cloud cover, rain showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the CWA through the next couple of
days. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. Their main
threats will be strong wind gusts, hail, with potential for heavy
rain and localized flooding.

The showers and storms will begin across northern AR Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night, spreading across western and central
portions of the state by Monday morning. Coverage will expand to
cover much of the forecast area by Monday evening and will be
confined mainly to southern and eastern portions of the state by
Tuesday.

Temperatures remain well above normal Sunday, with highs reaching
the upper 80s to the mid 90s. As the system progresses eastward,
temperatures will start to drop. By Mondayafternoon, highs across
west and north Arkansas will be in the lower to upper 70s, but in
the upper 80s to lower 90s across central, southern and eastern
AR. By Tuesday afternoon, highs will be in the 70s-80s across much
of the state.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

At the start of the period a fairly robust H500 cyclone will be
making progress southward toward the state from the Central
Plains/Mid-MS Valley. This feature will be surrounded by ridges in
place across the western US and along the Gulf Coast/Southeast US.

This feature will settle in over the state for the mid to late week
timeframe and will become cutoff from the main flow. While this
feature rotates its way around the vicinity of the state, sfc
ridging will be in place just to the north with the remnant cold
front to the south. This setup will provide persistent cloud cover,
occasional rain chances and below normal temperatures across
Arkansas.

Things become more uncertain by late week into next weekend as what
could become Helene moves toward the eastern Gulf Coast. Continued
flanking by mid-level ridges could lead to some mutual interaction
between these features across the region. Confidence remains low at
this time, but if these two features were to interact as depicted by
available 12z model data, there could be an axis of heavy rainfall
in close proximity to the resulting cyclone. Additionally, below
normal temperatures would certainly persist as long as the H500 low
remains nearby.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Batesville AR     70  83  65  80 /  30  60  70  20
Camden AR         70  91  68  85 /   0  30  30  30
Harrison AR       67  75  60  75 /  60  80  40  20
Hot Springs AR    72  89  66  85 /  10  60  40  20
Little Rock   AR  74  90  69  84 /  10  40  60  20
Monticello AR     72  93  71  87 /   0  10  30  40
Mount Ida AR      70  86  62  84 /  20  70  30  20
Mountain Home AR  67  77  62  77 /  60  80  60  20
Newport AR        70  85  67  80 /  20  50  70  20
Pine Bluff AR     71  91  69  85 /   0  20  50  30
Russellville AR   71  83  64  82 /  30  70  40  10
Searcy AR         70  86  66  82 /  10  40  70  20
Stuttgart AR      72  90  69  83 /   0  20  60  30
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&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...71