Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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727 ACUS11 KWNS 292225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292224 TXZ000-292330- Mesoscale Discussion 1069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateua Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292224Z - 292330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A couple of transient supercells may develop within the next 1-2 hours across portions of the Stockton Plateau and Permian basin. Large hail up to 1.5 to 2.5" in diameter, and perhaps localized severe wind gusts may accompany these thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KMAF shows continued attempts of deep moist convection over the Davis Mountains via orographic ascent and easterly upslope flow. Surface observations across this region, combined with modified RAP forecast soundings, suggest localized CINH has eroded here, with very steep mid level lapse rates in place. Large CAPE within the hail growth zone, combined with effective deep layer shear magnitudes of 30-35 kt, will promote some updraft organization. However, more broader scale forcing mechanisms will limit the overall coverage of the severe threat. ..Barnes/Hart.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29890320 30360344 31030355 31580283 31570187 30820134 30220124 29910227 29880317 29890320