-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
335
FXUS64 KMEG 230442
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1142 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A clear and warm summer night across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s. The latest surface analysis places a 1003mb low
over Lake Michigan with a cold front extending southwest into
Cedar Rapids, Iowa back through Topeka, Kansas and into Cherokee,
Oklahoma. An expansive 1017 mb high was analyzed over much of the
eastern and southeastern United States. The aforementioned cold
front will arrive in the Mid-South within the next 12-18 hours.
The latest NBM run and HREF guidance both depict isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the front
tomorrow morning through the afternoon hours. Coverage will be low
enough to preclude any changes to the current heat advisory in
place for tomorrow. The current heat advisory is in good shape
beginning at noon tomorrow and continuing through 9 PM.

The current forecast is in good shape with no major changes needed.
Low temperatures overnight will remain quite mild with readings
in the mid to upper 70s, especially for areas along and west of
the Mississippi River.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Hot conditions will persist into the beginning of the week as an
upper level ridge remains parked over Texas. The best chance of
rain will occur on Wednesday with thunderstorms likely by the
afternoon. Temperatures for the end of the week will be slightly
cooler, in the low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Hot conditions continue to dominate the Mid-South with 230PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s areawide. The upper level ridge
responsible for bringing heat to the region will retrograde west
tomorrow as a dissipating cold front impacts the region. Little to
no relief will be realized as this boundary treks across the Mid-
South. Instead, more efficient moisture return will bring
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. This, combined with
temperatures in the 90s, will result in several areas reaching
heat index values of 105 F. As such, a Heat Advisory will go into
effect at noon for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas of the Mid-South in
a Marginal Risk for severe storms tomorrow. Severe weather
parameters at this time look lack luster with mid level lapse
rates around 5.5 C/km and bulk shear near 20 kts. However, instability
should be plentiful in the afternoon. If a storm does get going,
the greatest threat would be gusty winds.

Additional heat headlines will be likely Monday and Tuesday as the
aforementioned ridge remains centered over Texas. There exists a
low (10-20 percent) potential for shower and thunderstorm
development Monday and Tuesday. Any precipitation that does occur
will likely be isolated in nature. Instead, greater rain chances
exist on Wednesday as a shortwave trough treks across the region.
Thunderstorm development will be likely in the afternoon with
upscale storm growth limited by low shear values. Current thinking
is that these storms will be of the pop-up pulse variety.

Slightly cooler temperatures will be in place for the end of the
week with highs in the low 90s.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A slow-moving cold front will move into the Mid-South tomorrow
morning and afternoon and trigger a few SHRAs and TSRAs. Although
coverage is too low to carry prevailing weather at any particular
site, VCSH and VCTS were carried. South winds will shift to the west
as front moves through each site.

AC3
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001-002-019-
     048-049-088.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...ANS