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533
FXUS64 KMEG 170931
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
431 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Slightly cooler conditions are expected today and tomorrow as a
broad swath of rain moves in. Hot and dry weather returns by
midweek with a gradual warming trend. Rain chances will pick back
up early next week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KNQA radar is currently picking up some light returns moving up
from the Gulf Coast, foreshadowing what we`ll see this afternoon
and again tomorrow. Coverage and intensity of these showers and
eventually thunderstorms really starts to pick up around mid
morning today, maximizing in the late afternoon. These storms have
the potential to be very efficient rainfall producers; PWATs over
2 inches are above the 99th percentile of climatology between 18Z
and 00Z today. In addition to the cooling rain, ample moisture
will promote thicker cloud cover which will also help keep
temperatures on the mild side today and tomorrow. NBM
probabilistic guidance still suggests a low chance (10-40%) of
temperatures above 90 degrees today, increasing slightly to about
a 50% chance tomorrow.

We should dry back out on Wednesday as a very anomalously strong
upper level ridge begins to build over the Deep South. For
context, NAEFS 200 mb heights are over 3 standard deviations above
the mean for all hours from Wednesday afternoon to Sunday
morning. Said ridge will eventually settle somewhere over the
ArkLaTex region by late week, which spells out a warming trend for
the Mid-South. Heat and humidity return on Thursday, continuing
to warm further through the weekend. Forecast heat indices are
back to triple digits areawide by Sunday. There may be some
diurnally driven convection in the afternoons, but coverage will
be so sparse that PoPs are generally between 5-10% each day
through Saturday.

Another pattern shift is on the horizon early next week. Two
longwave troughs and their associated cold fronts look to dig
across the northern and central Plains, one on Sunday and another
following it next Tuesday. There`s still quite a bit of model
discrepancy but this generally suggests an increase in rain
chances (PoPs are about 20-40%) and perhaps a break from
oppressive heat and humidity early next week, depending on how far
south the fronts are able to make it. Stay tuned.

CAD
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Relatively tight low level pressure gradient will keep winds up overnight, and
aid low level moisture transport into the area. A brief period of MVFR CIGs
possible in the morning. TSRA looks to hold off until afternoon, with high
clouds delaying convective instability a bit. The latest HRRR is a little
earlier on timing however, and will need to monitor for mid/late
morning TS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB