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802
FXUS63 KMPX 191947
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
247 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- More rain is likely late tonight in southwestern Minnesota
  with PoPs increasing to the east early tomorrow morning.
  Severe weather is not expected with this round of rain.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Friday afternoon
  and night in western Minnesota. Main threats will be damaging
  winds and heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals from Thursday
  through Friday night may exceed 2-4" in some places across
  south central Minnesota.

- Lingering showers are possible Saturday morning with drier
  conditions expected through Monday. Chances for showers and
  thunderstorms are expected through the end of the period.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tonight through Friday...We`re drying out and enjoying some cooler
temperatures and lower dew points today thanks to northwest flow
behind yesterday`s cold front. This evening and overnight look
to reamin mostly dry except for a few scattered showers to our
east until the LLJ increases in the early morning. The chance
for precip increases right before sunrise for southwestern
Minnesota before moving east throughout the morning before
ending by early afternoon. There is not any risk of severe
weather. QPF totals do not look too high for this round of rain.
We are looking at around 0.1-0.3" in southwestern Minnesota
while eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin sees much less
with amounts tending to stay under one tenth. Tomorrow afternoon
is looking to be similar to today with lingering clouds and
highs in the high 60s and low 70s.

PoPs and QPF incrase quickly Thursday night through Friday morning
as a LLJ works in across southwestern Minnesota. While severe
weather is not expected, heavy rainfall will certainly pose a threat
for flooding concerns. PWs are forecast to increase to near
climatolgical max (around 1.8") as warm moist air is advected
northward overnight. WPC has placed far southwestern Minnesota under
a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall through 12z
Friday with that risk area being expanded across all of south
central Minnesota and into western Wisconsin through 12z Saturday.
There`s still some shifting around of the heaviest axis of precip
expected, so the potential for a Flash Flood Watch will be evaluated
in future forecasts. However, upwards of 3" of rain seem plausible
through Saturday morning. The other concern for Friday is the
potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms. A warm front is
forecast to lift northward through the day with instability building
in the warm sector during the afternoon. The main threat appears to
be damaging winds, though some elevated storms may pose a large hail
risk over far western Minnesota. The LLJ will kick in again
overnight, reinforcing the threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms
as a cold front moves across the region. Rain will end from west to
east through Saturday afternoon and we look to finally dry out for
Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds in.

We`ll see a bit of a pattern shift early next week, but our
continued low chances for precip will stick around. The ridge across
the eastern CONUS will finally break down, but then we will find
oursevles on the eastern perifphery of a building ridge across the
Four Corners region. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s
through the middle of next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The patchy MVFR cigs have mostly eroded, but some SCT040 CU may
linger into mid-afternoon. Mid-high level clouds stick around
for much of the day aoa150. Wind speeds will continue to
decrease throughout the period, gradually shifting from NW this
afternoon towards N by the evening, and ultimately NE overnight.
Some locations may see winds go light and vrbl overnight with
the primary direction out of the NE. Rain chances will start to
increase heading into Thursday morning in tandem with lowering
cigs.

KMSP... Any precipitation will struggle initially but
sprinkles are possible after 12Z Thursday. The heavier, steady
rain looks to hold off until the early afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye/ALW
AVIATION...BPH