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FXUS63 KMPX 220811
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- More typical Fall weather will be short lived as temperatures
  warm back into the mid to upper 70s through the week with
  little chance for rain.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Temperatures have fallen into the 50s area wide early this morning
following yesterday`s FROPA. Northwest winds will remain in place
through today with highs topping out in the mid to upper 60s, which
is right on track for the first official day of Autumn. Clear skies
are expected overnight with a surface high overhead, allowing
overnight lows to fall into the 40s. A quick dip below 40 degrees is
possible for outlying areas, but frost is not anticipated. Monday
will warm quickly into the low 70s, making for another pleasant late
September day.

By Tuesday, a trough is forecast to move across the Dakotas and into
Minnesota. However, dry conditions will persist with no moisture for
this wave to tap into. Ridging takes hold again on Wednesday with
temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s and highs approaching
80 once again by the end of the week. Our first hint at any sort of
precip makes its way into the forecast by next weekend with NBM PoPs
of 15% or less across our southern and eastern areas, but this seems
to be heavily influenced by the latest run (00z/22) of the EPS,
which wants to send some Gulf moisture back north. Until we see
how things evolve by mid week, it`s safe to call this a dry
forecast period.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Winds have been calming and should be much calmer overnight.
Winds will pick up again tomorrow, but not as high as yesterday,
with some gusts up to 18 knots. Tomorrow night winds will call
to light and variable. VFR expected through the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NE to SE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...NDC