Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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125 FXUS63 KMPX 160840 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs in the mid-upper 80s to continue through Wednesday. - A more active pattern is expected for the second half of this week into the weekend with the best chances for rain right now coming Thursday/Thursday night and Friday night into Saturday. - Heavy rain is currently the greatest potential hazard, though a severe potential is slowly starting to emerge for the two active periods as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Conditions definitely feel muggy when stepping outside of the forecast office early this morning. Even with much of Minnesota and Wisconsin seeing mostly clear skies, current temperatures remain in the upper-60 and low-70s with dew points in the mid-60s. Off to our west, a mid-level low is producing a few thunderstorms across the Dakotas. This low is expected to track to the NNE throughout the course of today which will interact with a stationary boundary located southern Manitoba. As this interaction occurs, development for rain showers and storms are expected across eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Hi-Res guidance seems to agree with this thinking thus removed PoPs across central and southern MN and western WI for this afternoon. With high pressure continuing to maintain its grip over the Great Lakes region, skies should be partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s for both today and Tuesday. CAMs are starting to pick up on some potential pre-dawn convection especially across western MN Tuesday morning. May need to increase PoPs should trends continue over the next few hourly runs. We still expect this dry pattern to shift by mid-week as h5 ridging to our east erodes and allows low pressure building near the Rockies. One noticeable change from the last two runs of the NBM has been the timing and coverage for rainfall on Wednesday. Coverage has decreased and timing has slowed more to Wednesday night into Thursday. Depending on this lows track and the timing, some storms may feature a small chance of severe weather given instability and shear on the forecast soundings. Rain and storm chances continue on Friday and into the weekend but will need to wait until guidance has better agreement on track before discussing direct impacts. What is known now is confidence continues to increase that this weekend could potentially be a wet one. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to cool back down to at or just below normal late this weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A quiet period is ahead of us with mainly high clouds at FEW/SCT 150 to 250. Winds begin around 140-160 below 5kts, increasing to 10-12kts at 160-180 this afternoon with a few gusts to 20-23kts before falling back again by 00z. EAU has a fog concern this morning but confidence was too low to include for now and will be handled with AMDs if needed. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts. THU...VFR/MVFR, -SHRA likely. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...TDH