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676
FXUS63 KOAX 211030
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
530 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continuing overnight convection will bring potential for
  severe weather this morning, primarily damaging winds and
  flash flooding.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms with all hazards
  possible will move through the area in the 10 AM to 2 PM
  timeframe today.

- There will be additional rain chances beginning Thursday night
  and lasting through this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Short Range (Today)

A deep upper level trough moving into the central Plains has spun up
a surface low currently sitting in western Kansas. Overnight
convection in the area forced by a leading shortwave continues to
weaken through the overnight hours. This has brought a shift from a
severe weather threat to a hydrologic threat with storm training
along a frontal boundary draped across east central Nebraska
bringing flash flooding potential to the area. Nearly 2 inches of
rainfall has been reported for the Omaha area overnight.

An MCS has developed over southwest Nebraska/northeast CO and will
quickly accelerate eastward overnight. The features is expected to
push through the area in the 5:30 to 7:30 am period. CAM guidance is
suggesting a strong segment of bowing winds pushing through the area
in this timeframe. The strongest winds will likely be north of
Interstate 80 with the HRRR suggesting gusts of 60-70 mph in
portions of northeast Nebraska.

A lull in convection is expected in the 8 am to 11 am timeframe with
a few lingering showers possible. By the mid-morning, the
aforementioned surface low is expected to deepen and track
northeast into eastern Nebraska. Guidance has continued to slow
the progression of this low with consensus gained on the feature
reaching northeast NE by noon. This has prompted to SPC to
expand the moderate risk (level 4 out of 5) for severe weather
westward to include our southwestern Iowa counties. An
associated cold front will drape south of the low with
placement over eastern Nebraska by late morning. The airmass
ahead of the cold front is expected to quickly recover from the
overnight convection. By late morning, MLCAPE values of
2500-2800 J/kg are expected in southeast NE and southwest IA.
Bulk shear values are expected to exceed 70 kts in this area as
a 500-mb jet streak pushes into the region. Hodographs remain
long with increasingly impressive low level features as your
progress eastward into Iowa.

Convection initiation is expected along the front in eastern
Nebraska during the 10 AM to noon timeframe. An initial
supercellular storm mode is expected before storms move northeast
and take on upscale growth. All hazards will be possible including
large hail, strong winds and tornadoes. Flash flood potential is
possible through much of Tuesday, especially for areas that received
increased rainfall overnight. Storms will be quick to exit the area
this afternoon with much of the threat shifting east by 3 to 4 PM.
Additional lingering rain showers may continue into the
early evening.

Long Range (Wednesday through Monday)

By Wednesday, the aforementioned low pressure system is expected to
depart towards the Great Lakes region. Dry conditions are expected
with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s. A shortwave trough
ejecting through the northern Plains will bring a chance for
rainfall Thursday night into Friday morning (PoPs 50-70%). Severe
weather potential is low with this event. An additional shortwave
feature moving across the Plains this weekend will bring additional
rainfall potential Saturday night through Sunday. PoPs remain low at
this time (20-40%). In this extended time frame, severe weather
potential looks to remain south of the area with this event.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 521 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning. A round of
strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the terminals
in the 10-13Z timeframe. MVFR ceilings are spreading across
northeast Nebraska, reaching KOFK and KLNK with the possibility
of decreasing to IFR. Winds this morning are split between
southerly at KLNK with a shift to northwesterly as you progress
north towards KOMA and KLNK. Thunderstorm outflow is bringing
strong winds with gusts up to 45 kts possible.

A lull in convective activity will be in the 13-16Z timeframe.
Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will move
through 16-19Z timeframe with trailing rain showers possible
into the late afternoon. Confidence is highest in these storms
reaching KOMA. Ceilings will begin to return to VFR in the
21-00Z timeframe. Winds will shift clockwise to northwesterly
across the area this afternoon with strong gusts up to 30-35 kts
possible through the afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ015-033-034-042>045-
     050>053-065>068-078.
IA...Flood Watch through this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood