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FXUS64 KOHX 031138
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
638 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Through daybreak, quiet conditions will continue with temperatures
holding the 60s. Areas of fog are likely for the morning commute,
especially by lakes and rivers and along the Cumberland Plateau.
For the daytime, it will be a warm and humid day. An upper level
level ridge and southerly low level flow will bring above normal
temps pushing near 90 in some areas. Our standard model blend
shows almost completely rain-free conditions, but operational
models show an approaching impulse and the HREF shows isolated to
scattered storms popping up this afternoon, especially west of
I-65. So, 20-30 pops have been included for most areas.

A series of impulses will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday. Deep moisture and
instability will increase by Tuesday afternoon. Surface based cape
values will climb to 2000-3000 J/kg as precipitable water climbs
near 2 inches, so a couple of stronger storms with gusty winds
and very heavy downpours should be expected Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Conditions will be very warm and muggy Monday night
through Tuesday, but the added storm coverage and cloud cover may
hold Tuesday`s temps down slightly compared to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase further going into
Wednesday as a more significant shortwave trough brings a cold
front toward the area. Wednesday afternoon and evening will bring
the greatest thunderstorm chances for this forecast period and the
greatest risk for a couple of severe storms. Surface cape values
will climb over 3000 J/kg with adequate deep layer shear for some
organized storms. Gusty winds are likely with the stronger storms
and localized flash flooding will be possible as the atmosphere
remains loaded up with moisture.

A secondary cold front is expected Thursday with some additional
scattered showers and storms. That front will be followed by a
shot of cooler and drier air that will last through the weekend.
The weekend may not be completely rain-free as models show a
couple of impulses circulating around the developing eastern
trough. Very low confidence with timing and placement of these
weak impulses, so extended forecast pops are limited mostly
around 20 percent. Best news for weekend outdoor events is trend
toward slightly below normal temps and pleasant humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Will continue with MVFR fog CKV thru 03/13Z and MVFR fog CSV thru
03/14Z. Upper level ridging will prevail across mid state thru
04/12Z. VFR conditions expected all terminals by 03/14Z.
Some passing bkn CI at times. Initial calm conditions CSV thru
03/14Z, then becoming light SW. For SRB/CSV, addressed wind shift
from prevailing SW backing back to SE 04/00Z-04/06Z. For
CKV/BNA/MQY light southerly winds will prevail thru 04/12Z.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Nashville      89  69  85  71 /  20  20  50  40
Clarksville    87  68  83  70 /  20  30  60  50
Crossville     81  62  78  64 /  20  10  50  40
Columbia       87  68  84  69 /  20  30  50  40
Cookeville     83  66  80  67 /  10  10  40  40
Jamestown      81  63  80  65 /  10  10  40  40
Lawrenceburg   86  68  83  69 /  20  20  50  40
Murfreesboro   88  68  84  69 /  20  20  50  40
Waverly        87  66  83  69 /  30  30  60  40
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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright