-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
354
FXUS64 KOHX 230109
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
809 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 804 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

All watches and warnings have been canceled for Middle Tennessee
for the remainder of the evening. So we get to relax for a few
hours before we get to do it all over again tomorrow. The mid
state is under a marginal risk of severe storms on Thursday,
mainly during the afternoon, as that`s when the HRRR brings the
bulk of the expected convection across the area. Forecast sounding
shows plenty of instability tomorrow afternoon, with steep mid-
level lapse rates, a mid-level dry later, weak shear, and plenty
of precipitable water. So the threats tomorrow will be more or
less the same as they were today. In the near-term, we may see
some redevelopment of showers and a storm or two overnight and
early tomorrow as a weak shortwave comes through our area, but
these probably won`t be anywhere close to severe.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A few showers and storms were moving across far northern portions
of Middle TN. More storms were firing up back across West TN and
AR. Look for all this activity to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon out ahead of a cold front and surface
trough. Our most significant coverage and severe risk will come in
the 3 PM to 11 PM time frame as the storms from out west move our
way while coming together to form a possible MCS. Whether
individual cells or an MCS, the main concern this afternoon and
evening will be damaging winds. Some hail is possible. Very heavy
downpours should be expected, but the storms will be moving fast
enough to keep any flooding brief. Capes in our west are already
running over 2000 J/kg and short range models show values peaking
near 4000. Deep layer shear will approach 45kt, so the storms will
have a lot of energy. Thankfully low level shear is not favorable
for tornadoes, but the risk is not zero.

Thunderstorms will move east and gradually weaken late in the
evening. Some additional storms are possible overnight into
Thursday morning, but these are not expected to produce widespread
severe wx.

During the daytime Thursday, additional scattered storms will
form. Conditions will become unstable again, so severe wx is a
possibility. The setup does not look as organized for Thursday,
but still, a few storms may contain gusty winds and large hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

We continue to be concerned about stormy wx all the way through Memorial
Day. We will be in an unsettled pattern with west southwest flow
aloft bringing a series of waves across the region. The air will
continue to be unstable and moisture-rich with a deep tropical
connection. The holiday weekend will not be a total washout. There
will be periods of time and perhaps some entire days when the
balmy early summer wx beckons us outdoors. But, we must stay wx
aware, because the periods of thunderstorms could bring bouts of
severe wx and localized flooding with generally increasing hazard
potential through the weekend. Sunday and Memorial Day look the
worst at this point with all modes of severe wx in play including
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

Overall, there are a lot of moving parts in this forecast, so the
storm outlooks and forecast details are likely to need adjustment
each day. Have fun but stay aware! A drier, cooler, and much less
humid pattern is ahead just after Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Storms continue to roll through Middle Tennessee, although CKV,
BNA and MQY are in the clear or soon to be in the clear as far as
lightning is concerned. Storms have yet to move through CSV and
SRB, so these make up the initial conditions for those TAFs.
Overnight, another shortwave will pass through the mid state and
bring additional showers and possibly a few more storms later
tonight and early tomorrow. However, the best chance for storms
will be during the peak-heating hours of tomorrow afternoon (just
like today). In the near term, we will monitor for fog as showers
end from west to east. Right now, we don`t expect widespread fog,
but the ground is wet from abundant rainfall during the
afternoon, so it`s worth keeping an eye on.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  83  67  84 / 100  80  70  80
Clarksville    66  81  66  82 /  90  90  70  80
Crossville     62  77  60  76 /  70  90  60  80
Columbia       66  82  65  82 /  70  80  70  80
Cookeville     64  78  63  78 /  80  90  60  80
Jamestown      62  78  61  77 /  80  90  60  80
Lawrenceburg   66  81  65  82 /  70  80  70  80
Murfreesboro   66  83  65  82 /  80  80  70  80
Waverly        65  82  65  82 /  80  80  70  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose