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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 071452
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
952 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure across the area this morning will give way to a
weak frontal system that moves across the area tonight. Brief
high pressure follows on Wednesday remaining in control through
Wednesday night. Low pressure will then past to the north and
west, lifting a warm front north of the area on Thursday and
dragging a cold front through Thursday night into Friday.
Another system may impact the area Friday night into Saturday
with high pressure possibly returning on Sunday through Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to
temperatures and dew points to account for the most recent
observations and trends into the afternoon.

An upper level ridge axis will cross the area early this morning,
allowing a frontal system to approach from the west. The warm front
looks to move through late in the afternoon into the early evening.
hours. Onshore flow during the day, with increasing clouds will keep
temperatures near normal, with highs in the upper 30s to lower
40s.

Any precipitation should hold off until tonight, but a passing
shower is possible across the Lower Hudson Valley late this
afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With the warm front to the north of the area, forecast soundings
show weak warm advection overnight. Temperatures therefore should
remain nearly steady or rise somewhat through the night. Chances for
precipitation will increase as the cold front continues to approach
and move through. However, with the associated shortwave overtaking
the surface front and deamplifying, upper level support will be
lacking and precipitation looks to be on the light side, less than a
tenth of an inch.

Thermal profiles look warm enough for rain everywhere, especially
with temperatures rising through the night. NBM shows only a 10-15%
chance for freezing rain for KMGJ.

Chances for precipitation decrease from west to east after midnight,
with the front pushing offshore by daybreak or a few hours earlier.

Weak high pressure builds in for Wednesday. A frontal system
approaches from the middle of the country Wednesday night. Its
associated strengthening low pressure will head northeast and trek
over the Great Lakes region on Thursday, which will allow for a warm
front to move north and will likely lead to another round of non-
diurnal temperatures Thursday night with temperatures nearly steady
or rising through the night. This looks to be another light rainfall
event, with much of the dynamics remaining north and west of the
area in association with the low. Again, the precipitation type
should be all rain with this event as precipitation looks to move in
after temperatures rise above freezing and NBM shows even lower
chances for freezing rain Thursday morning with this event for
KMGJ, though it is not 0 as NBM may not be modeling the cold air
damming and its retreat well. Thinking that the freezing rain
will be more patchy, therefore went with chance rain and slight
chance of freezing rain for western portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley and western Passaic in New Jersey, as these areas
precipitation would move into these areas first, and
temperatures are more likely to be closer to freezing in these
locations. Any freezing rain will quickly change to rain by
mid-morning. Thereafter, associated cold front moves through
Thursday night.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main focus to begin the long term is the evolution of an
amplified upper trough that approaches on Friday and moves across
the first half of the weekend. The deterministic runs continue to be
quite inconsistent each cycle. The ensembles indicate some spread,
but also offer some confidence that low pressure will develop near
the Middle Atlantic on Friday and then track south and east of Long
Island Friday night into Saturday.

There is some agreement in the modeling that northern stream energy
will be much more progressive and outrun the southern stream on
Saturday. This splitting of the flow may result in the low pressure
and deeper moisture becoming suppressed to the south. While there
are many dry members across the CWA, there are enough that have
precip reaching the region Friday night into Saturday. The NBM
probabilities for this time period look good which give a low chance
PoP. There is also a good deal of uncertainty with how the lingering
southern stream energy will evolve. If the flow with this energy
stays progressive and neutral/positively tilted, much of the precip
and associated low pressure would then pass well to the south
Saturday/Saturday night. There are some solutions that indicate the
energy cutting off and attempting to lift towards the region late
Saturday/Saturday night. The NBM is dry Saturday night, but in
coordination with neighboring offices felt holding onto a slight
chance PoP for eastern half of the area was warranted given the
aforementioned uncertainty.

Any precip would be rain into Saturday. NBM 24 hour probabilities of
observing greater than 0.25 in of rain from 00z Saturday to 00z
Sunday are around 15 percent (west) to 30 percent (east).
Probabilities drop off for seeing over a half inch, with any
significant percentages well offshore.

The pattern remains progressive Sunday into early next week. The
trough moves offshore Sunday with ridging building both aloft and at
the surface into Monday. Another shortwave may approach Monday night.

Temperatures on Friday will be well above normal in the 50s.
Cooler conditions return on Saturday with highs in the upper 30s and
low 40s. Slightly higher temperatures are forecast Sunday in the low
to mid 40s before readings push 50 degrees early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure across the area this morning will give way to a
weak frontal system that moves across the area tonight. Brief
high pressure follows on Wednesday remaining in control through
Wednesday night.

Mainly VFR. The only exception is a brief period of MVFR
ceilings tonight with -RA, mainly from 01-06z.

NE-E winds less than 10 kt, veers to the S-SE by early this
afternoon generally 10 kt or less. Winds become SW this evening.
Winds will shift to the W-WNW with the frontal passage early
Thursday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind shifts may be off by 1-2 hours.

Amendments possible for timing of -RA and potential MVFR ceilings
tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...MVFR or lower in rain.

Friday...Mainly VFR during the day. A chance of MVFR or lower and
rain late in the day and at night.

Saturday...A chance of MVFR or lower in rain. NW G20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Waves will be on the increase today on the ocean waters as a
southerly flow develops. SCA has been issued for the western and
central ocean zones until 1 pm Wednesday, while the SCA in
effect for the eastern ocean zone has been extended through 1 pm
Wednesday. The SCAs may need to be extended in time as waves
remain above 5 ft for much of the rest of the day Wednesday.
Waves fall below 5 ft Wednesday night.

Waves increase Thursday night as another frontal system impacts
the waters, peaking at about 5 to 8 ft on the ocean waters.

Wind gusts of 25 kt are possible on the ocean tonight with the
passage of a cold front. Thereafter, wind gusts of 25 kt more
likely on all waters for Thursday afternoon with the next
frontal system. In fact, gusts of around 35 kt are possible on
the ocean.

Winds look to weaken on the waters Friday morning behind a frontal
passage. However, ocean seas are likely to remain elevated above 5
ft, especially east of Fire Island Inlet. There will be a brief lull
in SCA conditions Friday night. SCA conditions return Saturday into
Saturday night as another storm system passes south of the
waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DS
NEAR TERM...JP/MW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/DW
MARINE...JP/DS
HYDROLOGY...JP/DS