Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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544 FXUS61 KOKX 180315 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 1115 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure stretching in from the western Atlantic remains in control through late this week. A cold front stalls north of the area late Friday and Saturday. Another cold front will gradually draw closer late in the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Increased clouds but it is a thin cirrus without much effect on surface temperatures. Expecting partly cloudy conditions for most areas through the remainder of the night. The radiational cooling is already being offset by a warm southerly wind staying up within the boundary layer. Temperature and dewpoint forecast on track. Upper level ridging builds with surface high pressure to our east and southwest keeping rain out of the picture tonight. A return S-SW flow will keep somewhat muggy conditions in place as dewpoints remain in the 60s. Overnight lows still expected to be in the mid 60s for most areas, ranging into the low 70s in the city. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A strong ridge remains in place Tuesday through Wednesday with a 500mb high centered near or over us and surface high pressure offshore to our east. This should be enough to keep any shower activity out of the area during this period. Models seems to have settled on 850mb temperatures of 17-19C for both days, with the higher values generally across the northern zones. With the winds arriving from over the cool waters, expecting highs mostly in the mid 80s for most of LI and coastal CT both days. upper 80s/around 90 for NYC and interior CT, and lower to middle 90s elsewhere. Regarding surface dewpoints, at least a little daytime mixing out/lowering is still anticipated for areas not under a S wind flow as models continue to forecast sufficiently dry dewpoints at the top of the mixed layer. Additionally, there will be antecedent dry soils with the recent lack of rain and there will be no cold front or significant trough nearby to provide low level moisture convergence. And now that we`re within days 2-3 of the forecast period, deterministic NBM surface dewpoints have lowered nearer towards expectations - away from its high bias seen over the past several weeks for longer lead times. No changes to heat headlines needed for this period. Heat indices within the advised area are expected to be mostly in the 95-100 range. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... **Key Points** * The heat wave for interior locations (especially north west) is expected to continue in the long term period. The heat should continue through at least Saturday, and potentially into Sunday and a portion of Monday. * The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index values of 95 to potentially up to 102 during this time frame away from the coast. The most impactful effects from the heat will be felt further away from the cooler effects of the ocean, particularly across north and western interior sections (including interior NE New Jersey), and northwestern portions of Southern Connecticut. * Not much relief at night with warm and humid conditions as overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the middle 70s, with dew points remaining well into the 60s. The long term period begins with the region in the center of a anomalous 595+ dm ridge, with a trough along the West Coast and portions of the intermountain west. The global guidance consensus points towards a gradual breakdown of the ridge over time during the weekend and into early next week. Look for an increasing chance of showers and storms throughout the weekend and into early next week. There will be the chance of isolated, or a few widely scattered storms late Friday, but this may stay just north of the area. A slight chance of showers and storms looks to be the case on Saturday, but much if not all of the day will be dry with the heat continuing along with high humidity. Towards late Sunday, and especially into Monday is when the more noticeable height falls are expected to take place as the cold front which stalls to our north and northwest late this week finally makes more of a push towards the area. This will eventually break the heat, but there remains questions as to exactly when the heat breaks and showers and storms become more widespread later in the period. The latest guidance consensus is pointing towards Late Mon / early Tue being the time when the heat breaks, followed by cooler and less humid conditions towards Tue of next week. It is important to exercise caution with the intense heat and high humidity, thus it is important to take precautions to protect one`s health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Western Atlantic high pressure remains in place through the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period with wind direction overall S-SW. S-SW winds near 4-8 kts overnight expected into early Tuesday and then increase to near 10 kt Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening with gusts near 20 kt. Not every terminal is expected to have gusts. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Start and end timing of gusts could be a few hours off from the TAF. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday night: VFR. S-SW wind gusts up to 20 kt subside early evening. Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening Wednesday and Thursday. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ && .MARINE...
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With high pressure largely in control, sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to prevail through at least the middle of this week. There may however be occasional gusts up to around 25kt into the overnight on the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet. A S to SW flow will continue with high pressure anchored to the east and south of the coastal waters towards later in the week. On the ocean, seas may touch 4 ft at times with gusts up to 20 kt for Thursday and Friday, but sub small craft conditions are expected to continue throughout the week and into the start of the weekend.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through at least the early portion of the upcoming weekend. A cold front will bring a chance of showers and t-storms late in the weekend and early next week, but it remains too soon to determine whether there will be any hydrologic impacts. Any impacts would likely be very localized and more of the minor urban type. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There remains a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches Tuesday and Wednesday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005-006. NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>070. NJ...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC NEAR TERM...JC/JE/JM SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...JE AVIATION...JM MARINE...JC/JE HYDROLOGY...JC/JE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...