-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
203
FXUS61 KOKX 211733
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
133 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through Wednesday night, then
give way to an approaching cold front on Thursday. The front will
move across Thursday night and stall to the south as waves of low
pressure track along it. Another cold front will move across
on Saturday, followed by another frontal system early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed to trend
from earlier obs. Fog on Long Island Sound had expanded along
the CT coast west to Bridgeport and is now in process of burning
off.

High pressure slowly pushes off the East Coast today, but
remains over the area enough to keep the area dry. An upper level
ridge pushes east, but flattens as an upper level shortwave
over the Great Lakes region moves east, passing well north of
the area.

With mostly sunny skies expected for this afternoon, today will
be a warm day, especially for the interior, where a
southwesterly flow advects a warm and increasingly more humid
air mass today. Continued the trend of blending the 50th
percentile with the deterministic NBM, which gives high
temperatures in the middle 80s for northeast New Jersey and the
Lower Hudson Valley. Elsewhere, temperatures in the 70s to near
80 can be expected, with the immediate shore seeing upper 60s
for highs thanks to onshore flow and relatively cooler ocean
temperatures. Dew points will rise into the upper 50s to middle
60s. Lows tonight will only drop to the 60s across New York
City, northeast New Jersey, and the Lower Hudson Valley.
Elsewhere, lows in the 50s can be expected.

There may be another round of stratus and fog, moving in from
the east. However, confidence was not high enough to include in
the forecast, but some guidance is pointing to this scenario
once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high slowly moves east on Wednesday allowing a pre-frontal
trough to approach during the day. However, much, if not all the
area, will remain dry. There is just a slight chance for showers
and thunderstorms for the extreme western portion of Orange
County on Wednesday.

Continued well above normal temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs in the middle to upper 80s away from the
coast (approaching 90 for northeast New Jersey). The coast will
see temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 80s for
highs on Wednesday, and a couple of degrees warmer on Thursday.

High pressure will eventually give way to an approaching cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday. The parent low attached to this front
will be weakening as it moves farther north of the Great
Lakes leading to a weakening of the cold front.

There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms out ahead
and along the cold front for Thursday into Thursday night. The
cold front is forecast to move across Thursday night. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms decrease late Thursday night after
the cold frontal passage.

There is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to severe
with the cold front with forecast surface CAPE values of
1000-2000 J/kg and forecast 0-6 km AGL bulk shear of 30 to 35
kt. Right now, coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered
of, mainly for points north and west of New York City. No
hydrologic concerns at this time as showers and thunderstorms
will be fast moving, really limiting total rainfall
accumulations.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms,

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is currently a lot of uncertainty through the extended period
with timing of a cold frontal passage Thursday night, and where this
front will eventually stall. Waves of low pressure are expected to
track along the stationary front which may bring a chance pf
precipitation, showers, and potentially thunderstorms, to the area.
Near upper level zonal flow will bring a more amplified trough north
of the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada Saturday into
Saturday night, with another cold front approaching the region
before weakening. Then for early next week an even more amplified
trough will pass through the Great Lakes and northeast bringing a
surface low across the region. While there are chances for
precipitation during most of the extended period there will also be
periods of dry weather.
With the uncertainties have followed the NBM probabilities.
Otherwise, a warm airmass will remain across the region with
temperatures above normal Thursday night into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak surface high pressure remains in control through
Wednesday.

VFR with southerly winds increasing to around 10-12KT with sea
breeze enhancement.

Southerly flow weakens and continues overnight, with a chance
of MVFR to IFR stratus developing late tonight at KISP, KBDR,
and KGON.

VFR expected on Wednesday, with southerly flow increasing to
about 10-12KT again.


   NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

Winds at KJFK may be as high as 15kt with sea breeze
enhancement.


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Afternoon: VFR.

Wednesday Night: IFR is possible late, mainly east of the NYC
terminals.

Thursday: VFR in the morning, then becoming MVFR with showers
and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Generally VFR. A chance of showers with
MVFR.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Marine dense fog advisory was cancelled for Peconic/Gardiners
Bays and continues til 11 AM for the ern Sound and ocean waters.
There may be another round of fog tonight, but not enough
confidence to mention fog on the waters at this time.

Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions expected on all waters through
Thursday. However, this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon are
likely to see a southerly coastal jet produce gusts up to 20 kt
late today and 20-25 kt on Wed, and seas of 3-4 ft in the NY
Bight, possibly touching 5 ft.

Winds and seas will be below SCA levels across the waters
Thursday night through Saturday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BG/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET