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700
FXUS65 KPIH 242015
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
215 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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Tonight through Wednesday night. Satellite imagery
shows generally clear skies prevailing across all of East Idaho
this afternoon. The upper ridge axis slowly shifts east overnight,
allowing southerly flow aloft to move in. A very weak shortwave
skirts the region to the northwest, so a few high clouds will be
possible, otherwise no impact anticipated. A stronger shortwave
shifts through the PacNW Wednesday/Wednesday night. Winds could be
a touch higher Wednesday afternoon, mainly across portions of the
central mountains. Temps see a decent jump above today`s readings,
into the 80s for most lower elevations. There is a non-zero small
chance that some showers could work across the northwest corner
of Custer county Wednesday afternoon and evening, generally
across the Frank Church Wilderness, but as of right now those
chances are exceedingly small and the forecast remains dry. DMH

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Next Monday.
On Thursday, we`ll be set up with high pressure to our east and
troughing to our west, leaving us in southwest flow aloft. The upper
level trough will pass through, but the system itself will be
lifting northward, leaving us with just a dip in our temperatures
for Thursday afternoon. Highs for many in our valley locations will
remain a couple of degrees on either side of 80 and we will slowly
warm a degree or two each afternoon for Friday and Saturday.
Thursday will be just a bit breezy out across the Arco desert with
gusts near 30 mph while the rest of us will see gusts around 20 to
25 mph. Even with a weak shortwave passing through this weekend,
highs will stay in the mid 80s on Sunday and only drop about 5
degrees for Monday afternoon. The overall trend is that the upper
level jet keeps each system passing through well to our north and we
just get a glancing blow of troughing each time and it seems this
warm and dry pattern will continue as we head into the beginning of
October.
AMM
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.AVIATION...
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VFR/clear conditions with light winds are forecast
at all terminals through 18Z Wednesday. DMH
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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For most of the week ahead, our warm and dry pattern
will continue thanks to the upper level jet keeping passing systems
to our north. The closest one will get will be on Wednesday as a
trough and very weak cold front passes through the area. The better
chance for a shower or storm will be north and west of our fire
area, but can`t rule out a 10 to 15 percent chance of an isolated
storm just west of Shoup and Yellowjacket. Everywhere else will be
dry. Wednesday will also be the closest anyone looks to get to Red
Flag conditions with minimum relative humidities falling into the
mid and upper teens in the Central Mountains and afternoon wind
gusts around 20 to 25 mph in zones 475 and 476. However, fuels in
these zones there aren`t critical and the area of overlap of these
two criteria looks a bit limited. After this it`s more of the warm
and dry conditions for the rest of the week in which afternoon highs
will be in the low to mid 80s for valley locations.
AMM
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.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
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