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287
FXUS65 KPIH 140831
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
231 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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Today through Saturday night.
Warm conditions will continue today with only slight cooling from
yesterday but highs still mainly in the 70s mountains and 80s low
elevations. It will be breezy this afternoon in the Snake River
Plain with strongest winds in the Arco, Mud Lake regions with
sustained 20 to 30 mph winds expected. Will be near advisory
criteria there but will hold off on issuance. Saturday with a cold
front moving through winds will increase and highlights will
likely be issued with widespread 25 to 35 mph sustained speeds in
the Snake River Plain with gusts 40 to 50 mph. Not expecting
significant precipitation in the short term. Will have showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon mainly in the Centennial
Mountains and isolated storms to the south along the Wyoming
border. And the Centennial Mountains are in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms today. Saturday will be dry with no storms
forecast throughout the region. Will see more cooling Saturday
with highs in the 60s mountains and 70s valleys. GK

.LONG TERM...Sun through Thu night. All clusters show that the upper
level trough is a slow mover, and in fact is still to the west of
the forecast area even on Sun afternoon. The threat of precipitation
is lower than yesterday`s thinking, and now it appears as though Sun
night most of it will be limited to Custer County, with just a
slight chance farther east. Even on Mon, as the trough starts to
close off and become a low, it has barely moved into Idaho. Tue is
when there starts to be a significant divergence among the clusters.
Around half show a closed low lingering over western Montana and
eastern Idaho, while the other half has the low opening up into a
trough and lifting to the northeast. The minority of those solutions
still have the trough axis over the Gem State, the rest the trough
axis is already in WY. The same is true for Wed, although everywhere
it is back to an open wave. Thu appears to be a transition day, but
the timing is making for the biggest difference among clusters,
although leaning on higher than normal heights and zonal flow. But a
significant number keep troughing overhead.

The strong gradient aloft on Sun affirms a breezy to windy day
possible, with stronger wind on Mon. On Tue, less is certain with
the wind, with a lot of west and northwest wind indicating that the
troughing should be east of the forecast area. For Wed and Thu, wind
appears to be more diurnally driven by slope-valley influences, and,
finally, much lighter.

Temperatures continue to gradually cool through at least Tue. Snake
River plain highs start in the middle to upper 60s, dropping by Tue
to upper 50s to middle 60s. And cold enough for snow and frost Mon
night and Tue night. Less cloudiness and strong sunshine as we
approach the solstice has temperatures returning to around 70
degrees F by Wed, and some temperatures getting to 80 deg F on Thu.
The warm up is tempered by the west and northwest flow. Messick
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.AVIATION...
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TSRA this late night/early morning is now limited to the
areas well west of the Snake River heading northeastward, so do not
expect any more impactful weather this morning. Except for KDIJ, the
other airdromes, if they have any cloud decks, are above 650mb, or
around 16,000ft MSL. KDIJ has enough lower level moisture to
generate some FEW-SCT clouds and so possibly some TSRA/SHRA. SPC has
KIDA at the fringe of the general thunderstorm are for
today/tonight. This is likely for the late night hours again, as the
afternoon is the driest point in the forecast, with SKC likely. More
clouds return of all airdrome at/after 15/03Z. There appears to be a
large windshift at the airports from 15/12Z-15/15Z. This is likely
the cold front pushing through, just beyond the time period for most
of the TAFs. Messick
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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The thunderstorms overnight last night will make a
return to mainly the Eastern Idaho IFC AOR (portions of the Central
Idaho IFC are also in the risk area, limited to Lemhi County
portions), but it`s more in the evening and late night hours,
similar to Thu night. The afternoon will actually experience some
clearing compared to the morning. A cold front will be pushing
through during the late night and morning hours on Fri night/Sat,
increasing the wind strongly, but bringing afternoon temperatures
down for Sat, and driving up humidity. This front, except for the
initial thunderstorms late tonight, does not seem to be packing much
moisture and there is no threat seen on Sat or Sat night for
thunderstorm activity. There is more cold air to come Sun, Mon, and
Tue, when conditions will be wetter and there is a chance of snow at
elevations above 6500ft in the northern half of eastern Idaho.
Messick
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&&

HYDROLOGY...
A flood warning remains in effect for the Teton River at Driggs
through Saturday and the Snake River at Heise until further
notice. The latter will likely stay above flood stage into early
next week. McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$