Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
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Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --508 FXUS65 KPIH 191950 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 150 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --Tonight through Thu night. Upper level troughing to the west and upper level ridging over the Great Plains has lead to a dry upper level air flow. The upper level pattern changes little, with the coastal moisture moving into the continent in Canada, and not the CA coast which would have pushed some moisture into southern Idaho. So, expect a dry pattern that will allow a tremendous warm-up. From this afternoon to Thu afternoon, temperatures are up 10 degrees F, plus or minus a couple of degrees. Thus the mountains are looking at highs in the 60s and 70s, and Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley highs in the middle 70s to middle 80s. Wind will be driven by slope-valley winds and remain light, except in the Snake River plain where wind is expected to stay northeasterly all day, weakening a little in the afternoon. At this time, wind over the American Falls Reservoir Thu morning and even into the afternoon is northeast and as strong as 9 knots. Thus, very close to Lake Wind Advisory, but right now still under. Messick .LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday. Expecting minimal impacts in the long term period other than very hot conditions over the weekend. A weak short wave in western flow aloft will create isolated eastern mountain thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. It will be very warm with highs in the upper 80s in the Snake Plain and Magic Valley Friday and 70s to low 80s in the mountains. By Saturday and Sunday low elevation highs will reach into the 90s with Sunday being the hottest day of the year to this point with some localities maybe reaching close to 100. Monday through Wednesday will be slightly cooler but still hot with highs in low elevations still in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The next chance for any shower or thunderstorm activity after Friday will be next Wednesday on the blended forecast but not overly confident. So the main theme will be an extended period of hot and dry weather through the middle of next week with the hottest conditions over the weekend. GK-- End Changed Discussion --&& .FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --The trend will be for hot and dry conditions Thursday through next Wednesday. Only decent chance for any showers or thunderstorms will be Friday afternoon mainly in zones 411 and 413. Daily minimum humidity will be in the 10 to 20 percent range with less than great overnight recoveries. Winds expected to be generally light through Saturday with breezy to windy conditions expected much later Sunday into next week. GK-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --Expect mainly clear skies through tonight and only high clouds on Thursday. So good VFR flying conditions. Winds may reach 10 knots out of the east-northeast at BYI and 5 to 10 knots north to northeast Thursday at IDA and PIH. GK-- End Changed Discussion --&& .HYDROLOGY...-- Changed Discussion --Teton River at Driggs fell a much faster rate than previously expected, and was already down a foot from minor flood stage. Coordination with Teton County OES led to the cancelation of the Flood Advisory, which clears the board of hydrologic issues. Messick-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --None.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$