-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
331
FXUS61 KRLX 290205
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1005 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbances bring showers and storms Wednesday. High
pressure Thursday into the weekend. Disturbances bring showers
and storms late Saturday night into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1005 PM Tuesday...

Updated to reflect a warmer night across the lower terrain,
especially early on. Otherwise, the forcast is on track in a
brief lull between systems.

As of 820 PM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms should gradually dissipate after
sunset, with the help of a mid-upper level short wave trough
exiting. The forecast remains on track, with an even more stout
mid-upper level short wave trough, along with a surface low
pressure center, bringing at least scattered showers, and even
a few thunderstorms, into the middle Ohio Valley before dawn
Wednesday.

As of 1140 AM Tuesday...

Series of shortwaves to affect the area. One this afternoon,
combined with peak heating, will generate showers and storms, mainly
across the north. This will be followed by another series of waves,
one Wednesday morning, followed by another later in the day.
Overall, convection should be scattered in nature, and severe
weather is not anticipated, with storms today not likely to get very
tall due to a mid level cap in place.

As with previous forecast thinking, fog tonight should be rather
limited, but can`t be completely ruled out, particularly in areas
that receive rain today. But overall thinking is any fog that forms
should not be particularly dense in nature with incoming wave.
Cooler Wednesday with increased cloud cover and shower activity.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Any lingering showers over the northeast mountains dissipate through
Wednesday night with dry conditions expected through Friday night.
Troughing over the east coast will yield temperatures around 5
degrees below normal for this time of the year with a rather dry
airmass making it feel quite pleasant during the afternoons.
Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across
the lower elevations with mid 30s to mid 40s across the higher
elevations. This could yield some patchy frost across the better
protected mountain valleys Friday morning, but otherwise minimal
weather concerns are expected. Ridging translating east into the
Middle Ohio Valley during the day Friday will signal a return to
warmer and more humid conditions for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Warm moist advection begins in earnest during the day Saturday as
southwesterly flow increases. Precipitable water values increase to
around 1.5 inches by Saturday night. A relatively weak wave emerging
from the southern Rockies Thursday night arriving in the Middle Ohio
Valley Saturday night into Sunday should provide upper level forcing
for ascent and associated increasing H850 winds down low will
provide some level of mass convergence at the nose of a LLJ. Mid-
level lapse rates look marginal at best to support much conditional
instability, but may see some build with daytime heating Sunday
yielding some efficient rain makers.

Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in a weak flow regime
as humidity lingers. This should yield mainly diurnally driven
convection with slow moving convective cores. Will have to see what
the soils look like when we get there after rain from Saturday night
into Sunday, but some localized hydro issues would appear to be
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 820 PM Tuesday...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening will gradually
dissipate after sunset, leaving a mainly VFR night. However, a
mid-upper level disturbance, and surface low pressure center,
will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to
northern portions of the area late overnight through Wednesday
morning.

A trailing component of the mid-upper level disturbance,
together with diurnal heating, will make showers and
thunderstorms more numerous while expanding southward, possibly
with a southward moving, roughly west to east oriented line,
Wednesday afternoon. MVFR conditons at least on visibility are
likely Wednesday afternoon, with IFR conditions directly beneath
any heavier shower, or thunderstorm.

Light west to northwest surface flow will become light and
variable to calm tonight, and then light southwest Wednesday
morning, veering to west midday, and then northwest Wednesday
afternoon, with gusts to 18 kts coded up for BKW, as the system
crosses.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Localized MVFR fog is possible in areas
that received rain today, including across parts of the
northern mountains, tonight. Timing and extent of lower flight
categorize in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday may vary,
especially in the afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 05/29/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in the mountains in status Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM