-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
284
FXUS61 KRLX 200140
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
940 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of valley fog expected again tonight. Dry and mostly
quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 800 PM Thursday...

No major changes were needed at this time. Did make minor tweaks
to POPs at the start of the update to show where a few showers
were still occurring. Also made minor tweaks/expansions to the
forecast fog coverage tonight.


As of 155 PM Thursday...

Surface high pressure takes control, providing mostly dry
weather conditions tonight and Friday. Under mostly clear skies
and near calm flow, expect areas of dense fog developing
overnight, mainly over the mountains valleys, and areas that
receive rainfall recently. Any fog will dissipate by 8 AM Friday
morning.

Showers and thunderstorms could develop over the higher terrain,
triggered by afternoon heating on Friday. Some showers or storms
could spread into the lowlands, but rainfall accumulations are not
expected to be significant.

Clear skies and near calm flow will allow for radiational cooling
and a drop in temperatures, generally in the 50s. A warming trend
will continue Friday with lowland temperatures reaching the lower
90, ranging into the lower 80s central mountains, and into the upper
60s northeast mountains.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1207 PM Thursday...

The pattern to start this weekend will feature a weakening upper-
level low across northern New England, a ridge over the Ohio Valley,
and another low pressure system developing in the Rockies.
Saturday should be dry for the most part, but there is a small
chance of a few afternoon pop- up showers over the West Virginia
higher elevations with weak shortwave energy passing through
the ridge. We only give this a 20-30% chance of occurring. The
summer- like heat will be back in full force with highs expected
to reach the lower 90s across the lowlands. The more
comfortable spots will be in the higher mountain ridges, where
afternoon temperatures will be in the 70s-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1208 PM Thursday...

A warm front will pass through the area Sunday into Monday as the
aforementioned low pressure system, which developed over the Rockies
Saturday, tracks eastward. Models are generally dry over our area
for Sunday, with rain chances returning Monday as a stronger mid-
level wave of energy from the aforementioned low approaches
from the northwest. Rain chances will continue into Tuesday as
a cold front approaches from the west. Models begin to diverge
from Wednesday onward, but we opted to forecast near central
guidance, which suggests at least some chances of rain
Wednesday and Thursday next week. After starting the week
unseasonably hot across the lowlands, temperatures may trend a
few degrees below average for mid-to-late week with a potential
upper- level low somewhere over the East. Plenty of uncertainty
in the long-term forecast, so our confidence remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 740 PM Thursday...

Essentially all shower activity has dissipated over the area, so
all VCTS and VCSH was removed to start the period. An interlude
of VFR conditions will prevail over the first several hours of
the TAF period before valley fog starts to develop under
clearing skies and calming winds. Most TAF sites are forecast to
get fogged in at some point, or at least see LIFR or VLIFR in
low stratus, and clearing may not happen until around 12z or a
bit later for most sites that do fog. Once any fog does break up
tomorrow morning, another clear day with light winds and little
more than some fair-weather cumulus clouds is expected.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of dense fog may vary
from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       FRI 09/20/24
UTC 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
EDT 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...

Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...FK