-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
001
FXUS61 KRLX 190546
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
146 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system exits northeast late Thursday, allowing a
few rain showers or storms to develop Thursday afternoon. Dry
and quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 355 PM Wednesday

Tweaked temperature grids as we are a few degrees higher most
locations than previously forecast due to breaks in cloud cover.
Also expanded a slight chance for pops into eastern KY based on
radar trends, and to match with neighbors better.

As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Broad upper-level low pressure, associated with former tropical
cyclone #8, will continue to weaken as it exits northeast through
Thursday night. Meanwhile, guidance suggests extensive low stratus
deck affecting most areas overnight tonight, gradually lifting
by mid morning Thursday. In addition, light showers will move
west against the eastern mountains, depositing light rain
accumulations tonight. Precipitation activity becomes less
widespread on Thursday, with the possibility of isolated
afternoon thunderstorms.

Model evaluation: current satellite imagery and surface observations
reflect the 25th percentile of sky cover. If continue with the 25th
percentile through the overnight hours, will end up with partly
clear skies. Together with near calm flow, widespread dense fog is
progged by model consensus. However, due to minimum antecedent
rainfall, believe overcast low stratus may result instead along and
near the mountains overnight tonight. Isolated showers cannot be
ruled out tonight into Thursday morning.

Tonight`s temperatures will be cooler than last nights, generally
from the upper 50s to lower 60s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s
northeast mountains. Highs for Thursday will range from the mid 80s
across the lowlands, into the mid 70s central mountains, and mid 60s
northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Patchy, dense fog will be likely across the area Thursday night/Friday
morning as the low pressure center (remnants of Extratropical
Cyclone Eight) continues to move off to the northeast as a semi
open-wave feature. Clearing skies and a previous day`s rainfall
will allow decent fog coverage across the river valleys. The
rest of Friday looks to showcase dry and warm weather as high
pressure shoves its way into the area.

Clear skies will provide the warmest temperatures of the week.
The lowlands will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s, while
the mountains will see temperatures in the 70s to the lower 80s.
Dry relative humidity values in the upper 20s and lower 30s are
forecasted across the lowlands in the afternoon which would be
concern for fire weather, however northwest winds look to be
light enough to mitigate the threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

This Weekend (Saturday through Sunday night): Drier weather
continues with stout dome of high pressure over Texas forcing a
ridge over the area. A few shortwave disturbances are
forecasted to move through the ridge pattern, but only really
looking at transient cloud cover from these. There is a slight
chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the
higher elevations of the northeastern mountains, but confidence
is low in this occurring.

Temperatures will be very warm to hot with the lowlands seeing
upper 80s to lower 90s each day; while the mountains will stay
in the 70s to the low 80s. Relative humidity percentages look
dry each afternoon with minimum values in the upper 20s and
lower 30s forecasted for the warmest areas. Winds will be light
however, so fire weather headlines do not look likely at this
time.

Next Week (Monday through Wednesday): Chances for rain will
gradually increase ahead of a low pressure system in the
Midwest, though only allowed for chance PoPs as some uncertainty
still remains. Some energy looks to arrive Monday afternoon and
diurnal heating could lead to some showers and thunderstorms.
Highest chances look to be Tuesday afternoon onward as the low
swings off into Canada and forces a strong trough across the
area by Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures will be the warmest on Monday with low to high 80s
expected across the lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains.
Temperatures will gradually lessen back to around normal going
into midweek with upper 70s and lower 80s being common on
Wednesday. Will have to keep an eye on RH values, but currently
they are forecasted to remain above concern next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

Models have hit hard on dense fog this morning covering most of
the area. After full analysis went ahead and elected to add fog
into all the sites except for BKW who will likely endure a low
MVFR deck into the afternoon, therefore deterring fog
formation. The other sites may not be so lucky as mostly clear
skies and calm wind will allow for some patchy fog to develop
which may become dense at times. Any fog will lift and scatter
out by 13-14Z. An afternoon Cu deck may develop today but will
likely scatter out quickly by the late afternoon becoming mostly
clear by the evening. High pressure builds in from the north
but there will remain some chances for showers and/or
thunderstorms mainly along the mountains possibly affecting
BKW/EKN during the mid afternoon, but the threat will quickly
diminish by the late afternoon. Any IFR/MVFR CIGs will lift and
scatter out by 14-17Z. For the overnight, expect potential for
more dense fog as the same conditions will be in place,
especially across the mountain (eastern) sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low into early morning. High today.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus and/or dense fog formation may
vary from forecast overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 09/19/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...

IFR possible in low stratus or fog Friday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ