Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --741 FXUS61 KRLX 180644 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 244 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Isolated strong storms will be possible today. A prolonged heat wave continues throughout the week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 240 AM Tuesday... Key Points: * Hot, with potential for isolated strong storms and locally heavy rain this afternoon and evening. * Heat Advisory remains in effect. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are gradually diminishing in coverage while areas of fog begin to form early this morning. Any fog that does develop should disperse around sunrise. In the upper levels, high pressure will be in control over much of the eastern US both today and tonight. Beneath this high, hot daytime temperatures and humidity will again lead to unstable conditions and the potential for showers and storms during the day. Much like yesterday, model soundings show strong CAPE, weak shear, and precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 2 inch range during the afternoon and evening hours. In this environment, isolated storms could produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Much of the area resides in a general thunderstorm risk, though a marginal risk of severe weather has been introduced for a portion of southeast Ohio. Shower and storm activity should lessen tonight. High temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s in the lowlands this afternoon, while the mountains should range from mid 70s to low 90s. A couple of climate sites could come within a few degrees of their record highs (see climate discussion below). A Heat Advisory also remains in effect as a combination of heat and humidity are projected to make it feel more like upper 90s to low 100s in the lowlands this afternoon. Tonight will be warm, with lows remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s in the lowlands and low to mid 60s in the mountains. Heat safety tips: * Drink plenty of fluids * Wear light, loose fitting clothing * Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations * Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle * Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals * Know the signs of heat illness-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Monday... High pressure across the eastern U.S. will remain in control Wednesday and Thursday, with continued above normal temperatures across the region. Overall, conditions should be relatively stable and drier, and am not really expecting much in the way of showers or storms to develop either of these days. Heat indices both days may not quite reach the 100 degree mark, but the heat will still be oppressive none the less, with at least upper 90s heat indices expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1205 PM Monday... Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control for much of the week, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and storms during peak heating hours. Although dew points will generally only be in the 60s during the period, the continuation of temperatures in the upper 90s to possibly even around 100, may continue to warrant expansion of the heat advisory in time across much of the lowland counties this weekend. Ridge finally breaks down towards the end of the period as low pressure moves east across the Great Lakes region, sweeping a cold front through the area. Along with a break in the oppressive heat, showers and storms will become more numerous during the time. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 130 AM Tuesday... VFR conditions are present at all sites, though brief MVFR isn`t out of the question as a few showers and storms traverse the area. Activity should gradually lessen early this morning, then a few areas of fog may form - generally in locations that received rain earlier in the night. Any fog should dissipate around sunrise, resulting in a return to areawide VFR. While mainly VFR conditions are then anticipated for the balance of the TAF period, brief reductions could occur in isolated showers and storms that once again develop during the day. Light south to southeast flow is expected outside of convection. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief VIS restrictions could occur in fog overnight and showers/storms during the day. Coverage of both fog and precipitation may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 06/18/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L M L L L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CLIMATE...-- Changed Discussion --As of 240 AM Tuesday... A prolonged heat wave continues across the area through this week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some locations on several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to Sunday, June 23 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values. Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------------------------- Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19| Thursday, 6/20 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 93 / 98 (1944) | 91 / 98 (1919) | 93 / 99 (1931) | HTS | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1994) | 95 /100 (1931) | CKB | 93 / 96 (1936) | 92 / 94 (1994) | 93 / 94 (1931) | PKB | 94 / 98 (1944) | 93 / 95 (1994) | 95 / 97 (1931) | BKW | 86 / 93 (1936) | 85 / 90 (1944) | 87 / 92 (1931) | EKN | 90 / 91 (1994) | 90 / 89 (1905) | 90 / 92 (1931) | -------------------------------------------------------- Friday, 6/21 | Saturday, 6/22 | Sunday, 6/23 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 96 /105 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1988) | 93 /100 (1929) | HTS | 97 / 99 (1953) | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1930) | CKB | 95 / 98 (1953) | 95 / 97 (1923) | 92 / 96 (1957) | PKB | 98 / 97 (1953) | 97 / 98 (1988) | 93 / 94 (1964) | BKW | 91 / 93 (1953) | 90 / 92 (1931) | 88 / 91 (1931) | EKN | 92 / 92 (1953) | 92 / 93 (1923) | 89 / 89 (1899) | -------------------------------------------------------- Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus the all-time June high temperature records. Max Forecast All-time June Record ----------------------------------------- CRW | 96 | 105 (1931) | HTS | 97 | 105 (1930) | CKB | 95 | 100 (1925) | PKB | 98 | 100 (1988) | BKW | 91 | 100 (1936) | EKN | 92 | 96 (2012) | ------------------------------------------- End Changed Discussion --&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>032-039-040. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JLB CLIMATE...