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334
FXUS61 KRNK 241848
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
248 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A front stalled across the Ohio Valley will result in multiple
days with showers and thunderstorms over the area. Then a low
pressure system crossing the Great Lakes will push a cold front
through the Mid Atlantic region Tuesday. This will result in
drier and cooler weather for the middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers/storms exit to the east this afternoon.

2. Another chance for showers and storms tomorrow.

A cluster of showers was affecting the SE part of the forecast
area, with at least 1 strong storm. Additional scattered showers
were impacting areas from Warm Springs to Gretna and east. All
this activity was occurring under an exiting short wave trough.
Only diurnal clouds were seen over the mountains, and these will
dissipate this evening. Not much instability available for
additional storms, so not expecting much else besides showers
once this storm moves out of the area.

Mid level ridging builds in initially overnight, helping clouds
clear out some, before another wave approaches from the SW
towards daybreak. Where clouds do clear we will see some patchy
fog. Showers as well as isolated thunderstorms may develop
mainly over the southern Blue Ridge in the AM, spreading to the
remainder of the forecast area in the afternoon. That said,
there is a lot of dry air to contend with, but instability does
look slightly better than today. CAMs are depicting isolated to
scattered activity, and this looks reasonable given the
trajectory of the short wave and the lack of frontogenesis. Any
severe storms could have damaging wind given the inverted-V look
to the soundings, as well as localized urban and small stream
flooding.

Temperatures overnight will be in the mid 50s to low 60s, and
highs Saturday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s for the
mountains, and the mid to upper 80s for the Piedmont.

Confidence in the near term is high.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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... As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Unsettled conditions leading to showers and thunderstorms
each day

A deepening trough over the plains and Midwest will guide a
front into the area on Monday. Ahead of this, an induced
shortwave ridge will create the quietest period of weather this
weekend on Saturday night and Sunday morning. As the front makes
its initial approach, Sunday afternoon will see the return of
diurnal showers and storms with the help of moisture advection
due to strengthening southerly flow. Chances of showers and
storms will continue to increase through the overnight period
Sunday into Monday. The front will be relatively strong when it
makes is passage on Monday. In addition, ensemble guidance has
the greatest chance of high instability in our CWA on Monday
afternoon. This has the potential to be a setup for severe
weather, but confidence is low on expected impacts. As we get
closer, high-res and convective allowing models will be
monitored closely.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s and 80s each afternoon,
which is a bit above normal for late May.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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... As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Largely quiet forecast with cooling temperatures

After Monday`s frontal passage, we will be positioned on the
western side of a mid-level trough, and the eastern side of a
surface high. Both of these features will induce northerly or
northwesterly flow at almost all levels of the atmosphere. This
could result in some wrap around orographic showers in the
mountains Tuesday, but after the surface high comes closer,
chances of precipitation drop to almost nil through the end of
the week. Temperatures will cool to around or just under normal
with the help of the aforementioned northerly flow.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 200 PM EDT Friday..

A few areas of showers and storms continue over the Piedmont
this afternoon, and may affect LYH and DAN for a few more hours.
Otherwise VFR with clouds scattering out tonight over the
Piedmont, and VFR ceilings for the mountains. Another wave moves
through overnight into Saturday morning, bringing additional
clouds and a low chance for mainly to NC. Finally, there is a
chance for SHRA/TSRA mainly Saturday afternoon with periods of
MVFR conditions. Rain chances at any one location look low, so
did not include in the TAFs yet.

The combination of light wind and near surface moisture may
result in patchy MVFR to IFR fog overnight. This will be highly
dependent on when and where clouds clear out.

Average confidence for ceiling, wind, and visibility

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons
and evenings, will continue through Wednesday. MVFR conditions
remain likely with any thunderstorms. A front will cross through
the area sometime Tuesday, turning winds to the northwest and
eventually bringing drier air to much of the area. A low chance
for showers and thunderstorms will be possible across WV
Wednesday, otherwise VFR.

Patchy fog with periods of MVFR/LIFR will be possible in the
mornings near mountain and river valleys.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH